The IMF has lowered its growth forecast for the Russian economy for 2026 and 2027 to 0.9% a year, down from the 1.1% it projected in July. The forecast was published in the October edition of the World Economic Outlook, Interfax reported.
Projections from Russian government agencies vary widely. The Ministry of Economic Development expects growth of 0.6% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, while the Bank of Russia anticipates growth of 1.5–2.5% next year. Meanwhile, the IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3% to 3.1%, while keeping its 3.4% projection for 2027. The fund has thus downgraded its outlook for Russia even as the global economic forecast has improved slightly.
The IMF attributes the resilience of the global economy to the restructuring of supply chains and investment in artificial intelligence, though it notes that the capacity to adapt to new shocks is diminishing.
For the general public, weak GDP growth translates into fewer opportunities for business expansion and job creation. Experts also point out that it may hinder income growth.