Russian banks could earn about RUR 4 tln ($50 bln) in net profit by the end of 2026 and set a new record, according to Expert RA. In January-August alone, the sector earned RUR 3.3 tln rubles, 36% more than in the same period in 2025.
One of the main drivers of growth is the gap between income on loans and expenses on deposits. In the first half of the year, the largest banks cut deposit rates faster than yields on previously issued loans declined. Old loans continued to generate high interest, while renewed deposits came cheaper. The sector’s net interest income rose by about a third in the first half of the year.
By the fall, banks had begun raising deposit rates again as competition for clients’ money intensified. According to Expert RA, household funds at the ten largest banks fell by an average of 1% in the first half of the year. For investors, this creates conditions for more attractive offers. Banks have to pay more to attract savings in order to fund their lending business.