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Alexander Abramov: I believe in miracles

Invest Foresight asked Alexander Abramov, Head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets at the Presidential Academy’s Institute of Applied Economic Research, to comment on economic highlights of 2024 as well as Russia’s outlook for 2025.

Alexander Abramov, Head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

– I would say that 2024 will be remembered as more difficult, economically, than 2023. It was marked by a stock market meltdown and significant tension in the OFZ government bond market. In fact, 2024 was as difficult for Russia and its financial markets as 2022 was for the American market.

Another economic highlight of 2024 was the highly unusual debate on inflation and the key rate. Following that debate, the Bank of Russia made a most unlikely decision, truly inconsistent with its ten-year policy of using monetary controls. That was a thought-provoking event.

What else? Macroeconomic stability is still a persistent trend. In addition, the government is making considerable effort in terms of industrial policy. I think these are the major economic highlights of 2024.

As for economic expectations for 2025, it will be a miracle if the Government and the Central Bank manage to maintain economic growth at the rate of 2.5% of GDP while also curbing inflation. To tell the truth, I do believe in this miracle, but this is not going to be easy to accomplish.

I also hope that the second Trump administration’s customs policy will not generate any black swans, although there is a potential danger to the US government debt market.

Well, I also hope that the special military operation will end with a number of positive effects for the Russian economy.

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