Economists assessed the risks of the world dedollarization

Higher School of Economics predicts dollar will lose its dominant position. According to experts from the HSE, in the medium term update in the architecture of global financial system is expected implying a decline in the macro-financial role of the US dollar.

HSE report suggests dollar could lose dominant role in medium term – i.e. within 5-10 years. And that’s quite likely, after all, over two decades, the share of the dollar in world trade is gradually decreasing, the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev emphasizes. If in 2000 the share was 90%, now it is about 70%, the rest of the payments in the world are carried out in euros, yuan, European countries carry out gas payments in rubles.

Actions of the US authorities regarding Russia, popularization of cryptocurrencies, plans of developed countries to implement digital analogues of their currencies (such plans are reported by the United States, Europe, and Russia, and China already uses the digital yuan) will also reduce the use of the dollar in the global payments over time. But still it will remain the main currency of the world, other currencies included in the IMF reserve currency list are not yet capable of replacing it completely, the expert explained to “Invest-Foresight.”

As for the restrictions on the dollar within Russia, they are unlikely to be introduced, – says Artem Deev. – The fact is that such restrictions, which the Central Bank introduced in February and March this year, already reduced significantly domestic demand for currency and led to excessive strengthening of the ruble. On the contrary, we should expect in the near future relief on the purchase of cash currency for individuals – with high demand this can lead to an increase in the dollar exchange rate within the Russian Federation to the values necessary for budget – about 70 rubles per dollar.

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