The ACRA rating agency changed its 2020 macroeconomic prognosis for the worse. The agency is predicting that Russia’s GDP may drop 4% to 4.5% over the year. Analysts believe that the coronavirus pandemic will repeat in the course of the year.
The experts note that as the pandemic repeats itself, new lockdowns will be required, which will significantly reduce economic activity.
According to ACRA’s positive scenario, the lockdown will end in May 2020, lasting about two months. This will lower the GDP by 0.8%.
However, the go-to scenario is that the lockdown will take five or six months in 2020 and one or two months in 2021. In this case, Russia’s GDP will lose 4% or 4.5%. In 2021, however, it may show a 2.5-percent growth, Kommersant reports.
The unemployment rate may reach 6.5% this year. The inflation rate is expected at 5.2% per annum.