The Arctic is a Russian region which is as important as it is undeveloped. With its mineral resources estimated at $30 trillion, massive military and political importance, and the Extreme North’s unique transport and logistics opportunities, the Arctic prompts Russia to take most serious steps to boost its actual presence in the region. Alexander Pilyasov, Professor at Moscow State University’s Faculty of Geography, General Director of the Institute of Regional Consulting, and member of the Expert Council on the Arctic and Antarctic under the Chairman of the Federation Council, spoke about the current situation in the region and its prospects.
What Russia can expect in the polar region
– Mr. Pilyasov, can Russia hope to establish its jurisdiction in the Arctic?
– Lately, the Russian Federation has strictly defended its sovereignty in the region. I wrote a number of articles on how the country’s stance on its Arctic space – primarily, marine zone – has changed over time. In the 1990s, it was an area open for virtually any international vessel or expedition. In the 2000s, the approach became more strict, with more active efforts taken to maintain Russia’s sovereignty. Today, we can say that Russia has turned towards to once forgotten treasurable territory and is now taking efforts to gain a firm foothold there. As regards returning to the sectoral division of the Arctic maritime space that we were used to seeing on the Soviet maps, with the Soviet border stretching in straight lines to the north from the westernmost and easternmost boundaries, it is just not possible now as the Russian Federation signed the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and thus withdrew from the previous sector-based division. Russia has the right to a territorial sea and continental shelf extending 200 nautical miles from its shore. Changing this limit beyond the 200-mile mark northward is possible only in case Russia’s Arctic shelf expansion bid is approved. This process, however, may take years – but it is already underway and we cannot stop. In keeping with the Convention on the Law of the Sea, which was adopted in 1982, a country that seeks to expand its shelf has to prove that the underwater features adjacent to it are natural geological extensions of the country’s continental shelf.
– Is the jurisdiction issue linked to developing research in the polar region?
– Scientific research is crucially important for ensuring sovereignty over Russia’s Arctic areas and their development, as stern as it sounds. In the few past years, Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment has done much in this regards through the Russian Geographical Society. We have to boost the country’s presence in the Arctic. Of course, there is a lack of specially equipped research vessels for this purpose; we are mainly using those that have been preserved since the Soviet period, such as the research and expedition vessel Mikhail Somov. I think that building a new generation of research vessels to conduct comprehensive geophysical, climatic and hydrographic Arctic marine areas is as important as building the next generation of icebreakers – although the latter is much spoken about while the former is not mentioned at all. As a remedial measure, we could use the capabilities of the newest icebreaker Ilya Muromets, a multipurpose vessel that can solve specific scientific and research tasks – but this is not a solution.
The government must take consistent efforts
– What has to be done to make the Arctic available for Russia’s economy, science and the tourist sector? What is needed – investments, technical developments, or enthusiasts who aspire to explore the vast polar areas?
– The Russian Arctic is open to new economic projects, scientific developments, and new Arctic sea and land tours. What is lacking in the first place is the government’s consistency in its position and measures implemented, such as the stance that was expressed while implementing the Yamal LNG project. There are very few projects accomplished at both federal and regional levels. I believe that a small project that has been finalized is better than a megaproject that has been lost in discussion for decades – and there are a few such projects.
For instance, the start of the construction of the Northern Latitudinal Railway line, a major transportation artery, has been postponed every year. This major logistic project aims to connect railway networks of the Severnaya and Sverdlovsk railways, as well as the western and eastern parts of Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area, and to open the direct access to the Ural industries and northern communications.
The situation can be solved by a new law on the cooperation between the government and private capital in the Arctic zone, which is being considered by Russia’s State Duma. The document implies that the government’s responsibilities will include securing strict guarantees for businesses, as well as preferences and incentives, while companies will ensure financing and prompt implementation of projects and facilitate the region’s social development.
In keeping with the plans for developing Russia’s polar region through 2025, some 150 projects of various complexity are to be launched, all worth over RUR 5 trillion ($77.7 bln). The government will invest one third of the finances, the rest being private investments. The tasks seem realistic in case the law is adopted and the rules of the game remain unchanged throughout the program’s implementation.
– Russian icebreakers have ploughed through Arctic seas for over a century. Can we say that the icebreaking fleet’s role has changed over time?
– In the early 1900s, icebreakers in the modern sense simply did not exist. For Russia, the role of icebreakers in the Arctic is unparalleled: this is a material base that is boosting the country’s authority in Arctic shipping and actual presence in the Arctic seas. This is what even our foes have to take into account. Icebreakers are a major preserved Soviet-era asset in the Arctic region. This is why the national security issue involves preserving the icebreaking nuclear and diesel-powered fleet and its smooth substitution for advanced icebreakers, as well as the continuity of educating unique icebreaker fleet captain personnel. We should not rest on our laurels as a country that has the world’s biggest number of icebreaking class vessels, with four nuclear-powered and over 30 diesel-electric ships currently sailing the seas. But these are far from being new transport vessels; many are nearing the end of their service life. Within the next few years, virtually every nuclear-powered icebreakers, except NS 50 Let Pobedy icebreaker, and most diesel-powered ones will be removed from the fleet. A program for constructing new vessels, which has been implemented in the recent years, aims to fill this gap in the icebreaking fleet. Until the end of 2022, construction of three icebreaking river-sea class vessels will be completed which will provide navigation in coastal areas and river mouths, as well as of new nuclear-powered icebreakers. We have particularly high hopes for the construction of the cutting-edge reactor-powered icebreaker Leader, designed to keep the Northern Sea Route open all year round.
– What is the Arctic’s role in Russia’s military infrastructure?
– In fact, all infrastructure in the Arctic serves a dual purpose – civil and defense. One cannot be separated from the other; strengthening one aspect automatically boosts the other one. This is how it has always been.
Military servicemen’s presence in the Arctic is useful and necessary. Russia can preserve its influence in the region only if it takes major efforts to defend its land and sea areas. There are always those willing to take part in partition of Russia’s polar region. Development of the Northern Sea Route, as well as of the entire region, is simply not possible without providing security and control. With the military coming in the territory, work starts to restore airfields and villages that have been abandoned since the turbulent years, and to build new facilities and essential communication lines – and this is how the Russian Arctic is revived.
Prospects and opportunities
– What do you think about the idea of the Arctic’s internationalization and providing access to its territories to EU countries and China?
– Speaking of the Northern Sea Route’s internationalization, I strongly disapprove this idea. This would mean losing Russia’s sovereignty over the entire polar region. I consider the concept of the Northern Sea Route as a national traffic artery, embodied in the corresponding law, as more adequate and consistent with long-term interests of the country and its future generations. But this does not mean that I oppose providing access to vessels from China, the European Union and others to the sea area. Just the opposite: everyone is welcome – but as guests an not as the route owners. This would be fair simply considering the geography as Russia has the longest waterfront in the Arctic among all Arctic countries and it has the right to rule in the territory. Also, it should be understood that we will not be able to implement all expensive projects promptly without external investments. We have to attract various resources, including foreign ones – I an speaking not only about financial investments but also technology and logistic solutions, as well as expansion of commodity markets.
– Are there plans to develop the Arctic territories, such as for construction of research institute, warehouses, and so on?
– Definitely. This is what the idea of Arctic stronghold areas is about: developing the Russian Arctic’s industrial and logistic opportunities in a comprehensive way. The new stage of exploring Arctic land and sea areas is linked to the arrival of new players and new tangible assets, as well as developing new extractable resources. The prospects for investors are rather attractive. The Arctic boasts considerable reserves of natural resources: it has 100% of Russia’s diamond deposits, about 90% of Russia’s natural gas, 60% of oil, and 40% of its gold deposits, as well as a large number of other mineral resources. Milder climatic conditions, which have been observed lately, allow for their easier extraction, as well as for easier construction of processing facilities. Russia cannot miss this opportunity to make progress in developing the Arctic.
– What is the future of the Northern Sea Route? Will global warming be a crucial factor for its development?
– Today, the Northern Sea Route is an opportunity rather than an asset. Its current capacities, particularly transit ones, have a substantial growth potential. Warmer temperatures also make for this. But there are restrictions, such as the risk of icebergs [for vessels], the change of climatic phases from warmer to colder temperatures, insurance issues, and ice dues; natural and economic factors partially facilitate the development of navigation along the Northern Sea Route routes but partially restrict it. Global warming can lead to other unfavorable consequences. Thawing permafrost can cause considerable industrial accidents, such as sinkhole collapses underneath facilities as well as washouts of railways, transport arteries and construction sites. Ice melting can also increase the risks related to the use of the Northern Sea Route due to altering coastlines and navigating routes, and can even interfere with ports’ operation. So far, the balance of these factors is only slightly favorable and we see boosting domestic transportation services while international ones are advancing very slowly. Also, we cannot rule out the possibility of certain surprises which could, for instance, increase the Northern Sea Route’s attractiveness for Asian countries for their shipping services to Europe and back. In this regard, the level of uncertainty and exposure to various factors and effects is very high.
By Christina Firsova