According to Scope Ratings GmbH, European Parliament elections this week will show whether anti-establishment and Eurosceptic parties have gained in strength at the expense of traditional pro-European parties, with important implications for the functioning of the EU in coming years.
The agency expects a fragmented parliamentary landscape to emerge. As the latest polls show, the two largest parties — the centre-right European People’s Party and centre-left Socialists — are expected to get less than 50% of the vote between them for the first time since the Parliament was first directly elected in 1979, mirroring a trend in several European national elections.
“Pro-EU mainstream parties should still have enough seats to form a majority coalition and continue to drive the EU integration agenda,” says Alvise Lennkh, analyst at Scope. “The main risk is less that anti-establishment and Eurosceptic parties take control of the Parliament and more their potential capacity to inject uncertainty into EU policy making by forming tactical alliances to influence, for instance, the appointment of top officials, particularly at the European Commission.” Depending on their ability to work as a cohesive bloc, they might also end up chairing a number of parliamentary committees whose make-up has to reflect the Parliament’s composition at large.
Current polls suggest anti-establishment parties might secure around 25% of seats. Were they to win a third of the seats and then work together as a bloc, they could block individual appointments to the European Commission, though not the College of Commissioners itself. The College’s election or rejection by Parliament requires a majority vote.
“Eurosceptic and anti-establishment influence over the composition of the next EC and parliamentary committees could have far-reaching implications for the EU’s international image, foreign affairs, policy concerning migrants and trade as well as the priorities of the next EU budget,” says Lennkh. “A related factor is the challenge that pro-European parties might have in working together and reaching compromise when they have a narrower majority split amongst multiple groups”.
The EU mainstream parties’ leaders will have to bring in other partners, such as the ALDE liberal group or the European Greens who are likely to benefit from the loss in support for the European Socialists amid the apparent alienation of voters from traditional parties in Germany, France, Spain and Italy.