Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed the government, together with the Central Bank of Russia and regional authorities, to ensure the recovery of economic growth and investment activity rates in 2026. The President’s directive specifically notes that the measures must account for the need to keep inflation within the Central Bank’s projected range of 4–5% by the end of 2026.
Additional tasks have been set to improve labor productivity, accelerate the adoption of advanced technologies, bring certain sectors out of the shadow economy, change the import structure, and overcome negative demographic trends. Progress reports on the execution of these orders are expected by June 1, 2026.
This directive comes against a backdrop of slowing economic momentum: according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), GDP growth in Q3 2025 amounted to 0.6% year-on-year, down from 1.1% in Q2. Simultaneously, data from the Central Bank shows that public inflation expectations rose to 13.7% in December, complicating the task of returning inflation to the Central Bank’s target of 4%.
Economists note that the acceleration of growth in 2024 was largely driven by fiscal stimulus. However, its continuation is constrained by the revenue base and the budget deficit, which increases the likelihood of a higher tax burden. The tight monetary policy necessary to curb inflation simultaneously dampens demand and investment. Therefore, achieving rapid economic acceleration while keeping inflation within the target corridor is difficult without a sharp increase in commodity prices.