In March, the total volume of retail loans issued in Russia reached 926 billion rubles, exceeding the previous year’s figure by 50%, according to Frank RG data. This represents a 24% increase compared with the previous month.
The lending market dynamics in 2026 are mixed, notes Igor Rastorguyev, leading analyst at AMarkets. While there are certain preconditions for a moderate recovery thanks to an expected reduction in the Central Bank’s key rate, growth is being constrained by regulatory measures and a number of macroeconomic factors. The situation in the auto loan segment is particularly telling: despite continued activity in the used car market, stricter borrower requirements and rising car prices could limit further demand.
According to the Bank of Russia’s forecasts, the key rate will average 13-15% in 2026, and by the end of the year, it could approach the lower end of this range. This creates conditions for a gradual decline in lending rates, although the process is unlikely to be rapid or uniform, the expert warns.
According to Rastorguyev, lending growth is being influenced by a range of opposing factors. Restrictive pressures come primarily from regulatory measures: the Central Bank continues to tighten requirements for borrowers, including through limits on loans with high debt service ratios (DSR) and macroprudential buffers. Banks are strengthening underwriting practices, carefully assessing borrowers’ debt burden, income stability, and credit histories. The persistent inflationary threat is an additional constraint: despite an expected slowdown in inflation, risks related to higher tax burdens and structural economic issues have not disappeared. Furthermore, capital shortages at banks are limiting lending volumes, especially under heightened regulatory requirements.
At the same time, there are factors that could support a recovery in lending. A reduction in the key interest rate, under the baseline scenario, could lead to a decrease in loan rates of 3–5 percentage points relative to the end of 2025. In addition, consumer lending potential remains: as income growth slows, households still have a need for borrowed funds, which, combined with lower rates, could stimulate demand. According to the Expert RA forecast, the consumer loan portfolio could grow by 4–9% in 2026, although a sharp surge is not expected due to existing regulatory restrictions.
“Thus, it is premature to speak of a broad-based lending recovery in 2026: regulatory constraints and macroeconomic risks continue to have a dampening effect,” concludes Igor Rastorguyev. “Nevertheless, with a gradual reduction in the key rate, moderate growth is possible in both consumer and auto lending — especially in the used car segment. At the same time, strict requirements for income verification and debt burden levels will remain in place for borrowers.”