According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the Russian population will not grow in the next few years; the natural population increment will not resume until 2024, according to the Forecast for Socio-Economic Development for 2020-2024 the ministry submitted to parliament.
The official forecast actually indicates that the state demographic policy has been ineffective. On the other hand, the most important factor influencing the population decline is the dwindling birth rate, which the government’s efforts to reduce mortality cannot compensate. A natural population decline will most likely continue until 2023.
At the same time, the natural decline does not mean a decrease in the total population, as Russia will continue to accept migrants. The ministry estimates this year’s immigration at 295.3K, and this figure will grow from year to year to reach 500K people in 2024.
“The state measures to reduce mortality, especially among the working-age population, will help reduce age-specific mortality rates,” the forecast says.
Earlier, the ministry said the population was declining even faster in 2019 than in Rosstat’s pessimistic scenario; the level of population decline can reach almost 285K by yearend, while the May 2018 Presidential Executive Order On National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Russian Federation through 2024 set a target of 219.1K.