Economic growth will slow down considerably in Russia in 2024, with real GDP adding no more than 0.5–1.3%, according to ACRA rating agency’s updated 2024–2026 macroeconomic outlook. ACRA’s forecast appears to be more pessimistic than official estimates: the Ministry of Economic Development expects next year’s GDP to rise 2.3% in its baseline scenario, and by 1.4%, in the conservative scenario.
This year, GDP will continue to recover at 3–3.2%, ACRA analytics believe. This generally coincides with the government’s recent rhetoric: President Vladimir Putin said in mid-November that the economy would grow by more than 3% in 2023. According to preliminary estimates, in the first nine months of this year, Russia’s GDP grew by 2.8%, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at the end of October. Later, the Ministry of Economic Development improved this estimate to 2.9%. With the expected 3% growth by the end of this year, Russia’s GDP should fully recoup its 2022 losses (down 2.1%).
“Economic stagnation is certainly much better than recession. But this does not mean it’s a good thing,” economist Sergei Khestanov, Associate Professor at RANEPA, said
The expert added that strategically, the Russian economy has been stagnating since 2012.
Industries focused on developing the supply-side economy, such as processing industries, construction and agriculture, continue to serve as the main drivers of economic growth, according to the Press Service of the Ministry of Economic Development.
Growing consumer activity, ensured by flexible labor market and real income growth, has been a support to the economy, the ministry noted, specifying that, as per its policy, development of new scenarios will begin in early 2024.