A sharp surge in prices for cars with engines over 160 hp is expected from November 1 following an increase in the scrappage fee. According to Alexei Ivanov, owner of the Alliance Trucks network of commercial vehicle dealerships, this will significantly alter the market’s structure. The first models to become more expensive will be the most popular mid- and high-class foreign makes, such as the Toyota RAV4, Hyundai Santa Fe, and Kia Sorento, as well as premium brands like BMW and Mercedes. This is due to the additional costs of importing more powerful vehicles, which will naturally make them less affordable for the average buyer.
However, the expert emphasizes that demand will adjust, with buyer interest shifting to other segments. Russian and Chinese manufacturers now offer an increasingly wide range of models in categories under 160 hp, including the family-favorite SUV segment. The price pressure on these vehicles will be much lower, and in some cases, they will offer a better price-to-equipment ratio.
Furthermore, popular right-hand drive cars from Japan, along with certain European and Korean models with moderate engine power, will remain within the “affordable zone.” This provides a solid alternative for buyers who prioritize economy and practicality over a premium badge, the entrepreneur notes.
“The market will not shrink; it will transform,” Ivanov summarizes. “Demand will shift from expensive imports to other segments like domestic, Chinese, and moderately powered cars. This will enable Russia to expand local production and help companies that adapt their model ranges to the new realities strengthen their positions. For buyers, this situation presents an opportunity to reconsider their priorities in favor of more rational, modern, and affordable vehicles.”