The commercial vehicle segment has undergone a significant transformation in early 2026 amid a downturn in sales. Following the sharp market expansion observed three years ago – driven by a restructuring of logistics chains and the release of pent-up demand – the industry is now facing a new set of challenges. Elevated key interest rates, inflation, and the resulting increase in borrowing costs for businesses have led to a rapid decline in commercial vehicle sales, particularly in the heavy-duty truck segment, which by January of this year had reverted to the crisis levels last seen in 2015. At that time, the market contracted by nearly 46% to 171,100 vehicles. As a result, retail and logistics companies are now compelled to fundamentally reassess their fleet formation and renewal strategies, placing a stronger emphasis on cost efficiency.
Over the past four years, the structure of the Russian commercial vehicle fleet has undergone a significant shift following the exit of European and Japanese manufacturers. Domestic brands and Chinese vehicles now dominate supply. While Chinese brands held only a marginal share before the pandemic in 2020, they now account for roughly half of the market, partly driven by rising recycling fees.
Retailers are increasingly opting for Chinese-made trucks, which offer comfort levels comparable to European models. Another key advantage is the availability of spare parts and service, a critical factor given that vehicle downtime can cost businesses from several thousand rubles in the first hours to tens of thousands per day. Efficient parts logistics has therefore become a decisive consideration in vehicle selection.
Russian manufacturer KAMAZ has regained its leadership in overall sales; however, it continues to lag behind Chinese competitors in certain segments, such as long-haul trucks. At the same time, a new trend is emerging in the used commercial vehicle market, with companies increasingly turning to high-quality pre-owned vehicles as a way to optimize fleet renewal costs.
Another notable development in recent years has been the establishment of in-house (captive) transport divisions by major retailers and marketplaces.
Major players like X5, Magnit, Wildberries, and Ozon are rapidly scaling up their fleets, purchasing thousands of vehicles. Their internal logistics pricing is not designed to generate profit; instead, it focuses solely on lowering transportation expenses and boosting operational efficiency. These companies are looking for operating partners who can provide stability in the face of driver shortages and the growing complexity of document management.
In their efforts to cut costs, retailers are also exploring the use of electric vehicles for deliveries. Mass production of domestically manufactured electric trucks based on the UAZ-Profi has already been launched in Moscow. Still, the practicality of a large-scale shift to electric transport across Russia remains uncertain. In the milder climates of the country’s European regions, such vehicles can perform well in urban delivery, offering savings on fuel and maintenance. However, in areas with severe winters, particularly beyond the Urals, businesses may encounter significant obstacles. Battery performance declines in low temperatures, while the limited charging infrastructure increases the risk of downtime, making electric vehicles less economically viable. As a result, these solutions are currently more situational.
The most transformative way to boost transportation efficiency is through the adoption of autonomous vehicles. This technology has already moved beyond theory into actual testing. About one hundred driverless trucks are now operating on the M-11 Neva and Central Ring Road (TsKAD) highways, together logging millions of kilometers without accidents. These trials demonstrate clear economic viability: autonomous vehicles can extend daily mileage by removing limits tied to driver work/rest hours, thereby substantially accelerating delivery times. For instance, a journey from St. Petersburg to Kazan has been completed in just 24 hours, compared to the usual 58.
To support the advancement of autonomous transport, Russia’s Ministry of Transport has drafted legislation establishing a permanent legal framework for highly automated vehicles, with fully driverless transport expected to appear on public roads by 2028. Key players developing this technology include both major corporations and equipment manufacturers, which fosters strong competition in the sector. Nevertheless, broader adoption is constrained by the relatively low level of digitalization among small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the need for further infrastructure upgrades. Despite these challenges, large retailers already view autonomous transport as a strategic avenue for securing long-term competitive advantage.
By Ilya Molchanov, Director of the Commercial Vehicles Division, AVTODOM Group and AutoSpetsCenter Group