Over the past ten years, the Russian economy has moved away from its simplified dependence on oil prices. Now its growth is enabled by non-oil and gas sectors, Sergei Drobyshevsky, Director for Research at Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, said during the expert discussion on Horizons of Economic Policy held as part of the 2020 Gaidar Forum organized by RANEPA.
According to the expert, the oil price aspect has recently taken a backseat in the discussion of the economic situation in Russia. Rising oil prices might or might not help it, but they no longer play as big a role as they did 10 years ago.
“The fact that the Russian economy has moved away from its strong dependence on oil prices may not be the result of the government’s work, but its natural course of development, something that just happened independently,” the expert said.
He added that the small economic growth the Russian economy is showing, at 1–1.5%, is not enabled by commodities, but by other sectors. Growth is also promoted by government and consumer spending.
According to Sergei Drobyshevsky, a change in oil prices change by $10-15 per barrel would not have any effect on the Russian economy now: it will continue to develop at the same pace and will not experience any problems.