The Russian furniture market showed significant growth at the beginning of the year. If compared with the first quarter of 2021, this year it increased by 20% and reached 79.6 billion rubles, which is a record over the past four years.
Nevertheless, the future of the industry is in doubt. According to the President of the Association of enterprises of the furniture and woodworking industry of Russia, General Director of The first furniture factory Alexander Shestakov, after a successful 2021 with its recovery from pandemic failure there was confidence in further stable growth. But, according to the expert, now it is difficult to talk about it: the market is still turbulent, and furniture makers have two scenarios for its development.
In general, enterprises expect demand to fall by at least 50%. This is due to the fact that reduced incomes and high inflation will negatively affect the solvency of the population and hit the furniture industry. Competition in such conditions will increase, and companies will produce more “anti-crisis” product lines, as well as carry out actions to attract buyers. Another blow is the closure of the usual sales markets. The industry will have to refocus on new countries: Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran. Perspective is seen at India market, which, unfortunately, is currently unprofitable for Russian furniture makers due to the high 30% import duty.
And if we talk about a negative scenario, then the explosion of demand, which occurred in March and April, will end in May. If we turn to an optimistic scenario, then the market, closer to autumn, will be able to stabilize at a level that is suitable for manufacturers and buyers. So enterprises will be able to continue working in the usual mode again. The reason for optimism is the developing growth of the construction sector and future changes in the criteria for standard housing: mandatory finishing and minimal furnishing of kitchens, bathrooms and hallways.