Russians’ household loan debt reached a new record in October, soaring by RUR 335 bln ($4.2 bln) in a single month. This surge occurred despite a still-high key interest rate, suggesting that pent-up consumer demand is being unleashed. Even a modest rate cut prompted new borrowing, with many also rushing to secure mortgages ahead of potential tightening in state family support programs. The total volume of household loans now exceeds RUR 38 tln ($471 bln).
While the October jump appears dramatic, a broader view provides crucial context, according to Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment. It’s too early to panic, he notes. For the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative debt increase was RUR 1.49 tln ($18.5 bln) – the lowest figure in eight years. Furthermore, the October spike was overwhelmingly driven by mortgages, which accounted for RUR 289 bln of the total 335-bln increase. Sidorov characterizes this as a “one-time surge in pent-up demand,” as buyers responded to the Central Bank’s first key rate cut (from 20% to 16.5%) and sought to lock in favorable family mortgage terms.
Sidorov does acknowledge a rise in problem loans. At the start of June, overdue debt surpassed RUR 1.5 tln, representing 4.4% of the total loan portfolio. In the riskier unsecured consumer segment, the share of non-performing loans reached 12.9%.
“This is primarily the ‘maturation’ of loans issued during the more lenient lending boom of 2023-2024,” Sidorov explains. He points to significant industry safeguards: “Banks currently hold over RUR 8 tln ($99 bln) in reserves, providing more than 90% coverage for troubled debts. Additionally, banks are actively engaging with borrowers – the volume of loan restructurings in the first nine months of 2025 doubled year-on-year to RUR 858 bln ($10.6 bln). This proactive work is preventing the situation from reaching a critical point,” Sidorov emphasizes.
The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting estimates the probability of a credit crisis as moderate by October 2026. However, the Central Bank clearly states: there is no systemic deterioration, and no early signs of a banking crisis are evident. Real household incomes increased by 7% year-on-year in the second quarter, with the average salary exceeding RUR 100,000 ($1,270). The key rate has been slightly lowered, which will gradually alleviate the debt burden.
“Yes, some borrowers are experiencing difficulties, but the financial situation for people in general remains stable. The Russian banking system has weathered more severe tests and demonstrated the ability to cope with crises,” the investor summarizes.