According to a statement from the Finance Ministry, the federal budget deficit for the first half of 2025 reached RUR 3.4 tln ($42 bln). This figure represents 1.6% of the estimated annual GDP, or 3.4% of the GDP for the first half of the year.
The ministry’s press office noted that measuring budget execution against semi-annual GDP is a standard practice, adding that the same method was used for the first half of 2024.
This assessment follows earlier comments from Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who stated at a government meeting that the half-year deficit, factoring in revenue transfers, amounted to 3.4% of GDP.
Economist Sergei Khestanov, an associate professor at RANEPA, stated that a 3.4% deficit is not yet critical, while warning of potential challenges ahead.
“However, if the deficit continues to grow at this pace through the end of the year, we will have to take significant measures to finance it,” the expert said. “This could mean reducing spending (a difficult decision), raising taxes (where there is little room to do so), increasing borrowing, or devaluing the ruble. Most likely, a combination of all these methods would be used to the greatest extent possible.”