In recent years, carbon markets have become one of the key tools for transforming the global economy. For Russia, the formation of its own market for carbon units is not only a matter of climate policy, but also a factor in the future competitiveness of industry. It is important to consider carbon tools not as a theoretical concept, but as a practical mechanism that is already beginning to shape the new low-carbon economy.
World context: why carbon is called the new oil
At the global level, carbon markets are developing much faster than in the Russian Federation. The combined value of global carbon trading markets is already more than $800 billion a year, according to estimates from BloombergNEF and other think tanks. The largest emissions trading systems are the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the Chinese national carbon market, and regulatory systems in the UK, South Korea and several regions of North America.
Economists increasingly refer to carbon credits as “new oil.” The reason is that CO₂ emissions gradually receive an economic price. If the state imposes restrictions on emissions, a new product appears – the right to emit one ton of CO₂. This commodity starts trading in the market and forms a new global price on carbon.
According to analysts, by 2030 the global carbon market could exceed $2-3 trillion, becoming one of the largest commodity markets in the world.
A separate direction in the development of the carbon market is associated with industrial technologies for reducing emissions, including CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage) – capture, use and storage of CO₂. Such technologies are already actively used in the oil and gas industry, energy and the chemical industry. In some cases, captured CO₂ can be reused, for example, in enhanced oil recovery projects or in industrial processes. Such solutions not only reduce emissions, but also create new climate projects that can generate carbon units.
Current state of the domestic market
The Russian carbon market began to take shape after the adoption of legislation on the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and the creation of a system for accounting for climate projects. The country has launched a national register of carbon units, which records climate projects and the release of carbon credits. To date, dozens of climate projects have been registered in the register, and the total volume of carbon units accounted for is tens of millions. However, trade volumes are still relatively small, and the market itself is at an early stage of development.
One of the key pilot projects was the climate experiment on Sakhalin. As part of this experiment, greenhouse gas emission quotas were introduced for large enterprises and a carbon unit trading system was created. It was within the framework of the Sakhalin project that the first exchange transactions with carbon assets in Russia took place.
Participants in the emerging market are large industrial companies – energy, oil and gas, metallurgy and chemical industries. In addition, climate project developers, financial institutions and regional authorities are gradually joining the market.
At the same time, the Russian carbon market has both positive and restraining factors of development. On the one hand, a regulatory framework and an emissions accounting system are being formed, the first climate projects appear. On the other hand, the liquidity of the market is still low, and the number of participants is limited.
Anyway, the carbon market is important for Russia. First, it is a tool to combat climate change and a mechanism to stimulate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
Second, the carbon market is becoming an important economic tool. It creates incentives to modernize production, introduce low-carbon technologies and develop new industries, including hydrogen energy and carbon capture and use technologies.
Finally, carbon regulation is gradually becoming a factor in international trade. Many countries are introducing product carbon footprint requirements, which directly affect goods’ access to global markets.
Practical experience
I’ll tell you a practical example of how we bought 100 carbon units in November 2025. These units were produced as part of the climate project of SIBUR, one of the largest petrochemical producers in Russia, which is actively implementing projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The experience gained made it possible to evaluate in practice how the emerging infrastructure of the carbon market works. The deal included selecting the climate project from which the carbon units are released, pursuing a deal between the parties and registering the transfer of rights in the national carbon unit register.
Even small deals play an important role in shaping practices. They allow companies to gain experience with carbon instruments, and the market becomes able to form gradually price benchmarks and trading mechanisms.
In other words, this is not just a theoretical interest in the topic of decarbonization, but a practical step towards understanding how carbon tools will work in a real industrial economy.
Prospects and risks
The prospects for the Russian carbon market are primarily related to the scaling of climate projects and the development of an emissions accounting system.
Russia has significant potential for natural carbon absorption due to its forest resources, as well as opportunities for the implementation of industrial projects to reduce emissions.
However, there is another side: this is still low liquidity, the need for further improvement of the regulatory framework and the need for investment in low-carbon technologies.
In our experience, the Russian carbon market today is at an early stage of formation. For most companies, this is still a new tool, and the market is just beginning to accumulate the practice of transactions, the implementation of climate projects and the formation of price benchmarks.
However, global experience shows that carbon markets are becoming an important part of economic policy and industrial transformation. With the development of climate projects, the emergence of new participants and the expansion of the carbon unit trading system, the Russian market can become an important tool for industrial modernization.
It is important for business to start working with these tools today – to participate in climate projects, introduce emission accounting systems and test mechanisms for trading carbon units.
Perhaps in a few decades, tons of CO₂ will be traded on world markets as actively as barrels of oil are traded today. Those countries and companies that will start working with carbon instruments today will be in the most advantageous position in the new climate economy.
By Elena Gazizyanova, General Director of Gas Service Consulting LLC