For 2020-2024 the turnover of the cafe and restaurant market in Russia grew by 25 times and by the end of 2024 reached 2.74 trillion rubles. Positive dynamics persists. In the first half of 2025, the restaurant market grew by another 8,1%. However, it also does not do without challenges. What trends will become leading for the restaurant business in the near future and what are the barriers to overcome?
Russian is in trend
One of the key trends for the restaurant industry in the coming years will be a total reorientation to the domestic market. Rise in popularity of Russian cuisine, shifting the attention of chefs to local products, the emergence of new gastronomic capitals and the transformation of restaurants into the territory of Russia in points of attraction for tourists – all these are links of one chain that testify eloquently to one thing: the level of gastronomy and service in our country today is higher than ever.
This trend should be considered from different angles, and the first, of course, is the increase in the number of Russian cuisine establishments. The Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that in Russia there are still less than 1% of restaurants with the corresponding concept. However, we see the development of this segment, as well as the rapid expansion of ideas about Russian cuisine both from restaurateurs and from visitors. Today it is not only pancakes, pies and Olivier, but an incredible variety of author’s rethinks and local traditions.
A huge number of metropolitan chefs tour with gastro dinners across the country. They work in different parts of Russia with local products and authentic tastes that our regions are so rich in. And it resonates most fervently with guests.
The motives of Russian gastronomy create exotic collaborations with other cultures, penetrate fast food and the Asian menu, giving rise to the phenomenon of Russian panasia. For example, the Moscow chef Alexander Raylyan (Birds restaurant), uniting with colleagues from the Far East, demonstrated how organically very different gastronomic traditions can be combined. Thanks to his experiments, dishes such as borscht with shrimp and coconut milk or classic cutlets, but with ginger and shiitake, became possible. The purpose of this collaboration was to enrich Russian cuisine with oriental traditions and ingredients.
We also embodied the concept of friendship between Russia and Asia in our first institution, Vasya from Guangzhou. Here it was reflected, first of all, in storytelling: our hero, Vasya, is a simple Russian guy who ended up in China. His impressions of this new unfamiliar culture materialized on our menu.
Domestic gastronomic tourism
Moscow and St. Petersburg have ceased to be the focus of popular establishments, becoming a point of attraction for gourmets. Such restaurants began to open throughout the country, fundamentally changing the landscape of the industry. All this, in turn, has formed a new trend – for gastronomic tourism within the country.
When choosing a route for a vacation in Russia, travelers are guided not only by attractions, transport accessibility and a comfortable room stock, but also by restaurants. Going to the Arctic or the Far East to taste fresh seafood has become as organic for travelers as planning a vacation in Italy 10 years ago to try authentic pizza.
New standards for the industry are set by establishments from various parts of Russia, from the Krasnoyarsk network Berrywood Family to the Novosibirsk SiberiaSiberia.
Russian tour guides are being created that allow the widest audience to learn about excellent domestic restaurant projects.
For example, several years ago, gastro expert Alexander Sysoev, with the support of Alfa Bank, launched the Great List, a gastronomic guide, a kind of analogue of the Michelin guide. The domestic option has already entered the international market. So far, it does not cover the whole of Russia, but such a project is a marker of market development that needs expertise, ratings and constant exchange of experience between its participants.
A similar project was launched last year by MTS Travel, which created a series of gastronomic guides to Russian cities. Gastrogides are also published by the publishing house “Собака.ru.” Among their gastronomic guides there are Ufa, Vladimir, Moscow, Omsk, Kostroma and many other cities.
State involvement
In continuation of the topic of domestic gastronomic tourism, it is worth mentioning state projects aimed at developing Russian restaurant culture and turning it into a part of the national heritage.
In the spring of this year, restaurants were integrated into the national tourism development project, which provided tax breaks and simplified reporting for small sites, infrastructure support and a number of other measures.
Many regions, for example, the Far East, the Southern Federal District, are rich in national gastronomic traditions, and also have the opportunity to offer interesting local products. For them, this is a chance to increase their tourist attractiveness significantly, speaking the language of gastronomy with guests.
Also, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has prepared guidelines for holding festivals of Russian cuisine in different regions of the country. Gastro festivals are designed to popularize the domestic gastronomic heritage, but in addition, they can also become a point of attraction for industry professionals who will have an additional opportunity to tell about themselves and exchange expertise, as well as for tourists.
In our Republic of Mari El we have our own Interregional Gastronomic Festival “Yoshka Yesh,” where we took part. This year it was held for the third time. The festival became part of the project “Gastronomic Map of Russia” within the framework of the national project “Tourism and Hospitality.” It meets the gastronomic traditions of our entire vast country. It attracts restaurateurs and guests both from our region and from other constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
An important change for the industry was also a new GOST introduced in 2025, according to which up to 20% of the wine list in the institution must be represented by Russian wines. To be sure, the market has taken it differently. It is difficult for someone to enter domestic samples into their concept, someone, on the contrary, tried to make focus on Russian wines their advantage, their “feature”: fortunately, Russian wines’ quality is growing every year.
Fight against retail
Although the restaurant industry is optimistic about the future, problems cannot be completely avoided.
The average check in establishments is really growing, but this is achieved, first of all, by the growth of price tags. The rise in the cost of ingredients, the need to raise salaries, the growing costs of rent and maintenance of sites – all this dictates the need to adjust the price upwards.
Yes, the market got out of the pandemic year crisis and increased attendance compared to 2022, when most Russians preferred to reduce spending considering uncertainty of the future. But today the occupancy rate of establishments is lower than it was a year ago.
This was largely influenced by changes in the structure of consumption of ready-made food. The restaurant is less about satisfying hunger and more about emotion and atmosphere. Today, Russians often save on these aspects, preferring utilitarianism.
In retail, in turn, ready-made cooking in individual packaging is intensively increasing in popularity. Yes, by their taste such dishes are often inferior to restaurant, but they are cheaper, and the format is more convenient for daily consumption and delivery. At the same time, it is important for us, restaurateurs, to recognize: the quality of such products is growing. Today it can become a serious competitor for restaurants (at least in the middle and below average price categories).
Restaurant traffic was also affected by the explosive growth of dark kitchens, which began to reach double digits, and the development of delivery. Now establishments need to take into account the growing demand for it. For many, menus suitable for the delivery format, the creation of their own courier service or cooperation with the relevant services has become a matter of survival.
The trend towards lower sales in restaurants is global. It is dictated by rapid inflation, which entails the need for consumers to save money, the development of delivery, as well as food-to-go formats popular with young people. They drag attention from classic establishments, where people come not only to eat, but also to enjoy the atmosphere and service.
Focus on zoomers
Young people are becoming an important part of the target audience of the restaurant business. Today, the core of visitors are people aged 18 to 45 years. The zoomers are beginning to exert an increasing influence on the market. They have already formed clear consumption patterns.
One of its main components was an increased interest in healthy lifestyles and the rejection of alcohol. The desire for a healthy diet and the replacement of a glass of wine with matcha tea or healthy smoothies spur restaurateurs and chefs to find new culinary solutions, create new recipes that will still delight the receptors, but at the same time will comply with the principles of proper nutrition.
The need to attract a young audience affects significantly the principles of promotion. Most zoomers choose an institution to go to with friends – through social networks. And the most effective channels of communication with this generation are their own blogs and collaborations with influencers, whom young people trust much more than traditional advertising.
Foodtech in the near term
Restaurants today are keeping up to date, integrating foodtech solutions into their work: be it a menu invented by AI or delivery automation.
Somewhere this trend is dictated by momentary fashion, research interest, and somewhere it is a fundamental issue of the institution’s competitiveness.
Much attention in the field of foodtech is paid to the food itself: the development of alternative proteins, the spread of functional nutrition, which corresponds to the trend for healthy lifestyle.
In the restaurant industry, smart technologies are used for personalization: compiling special menus, improving recommendation algorithms in delivery services. Deep analytics, detailed segmentation of the audience and, as a result, customized offers will become one of the key areas of industry development in the near future.
Restaurateurs are also looking for ways to use AI to predict demand depending on the season or time of day, create optimal supply chains both in the purchase of ingredients and in the delivery of ready meals to customers, for automation, which will reduce the human factor and increase productivity without expanding the staff.
Of course, foodtech is still a fairly narrowly used tool that not all sites are introducing. Many people prefer tradition both in menu issues and in communication with the consumer. Nevertheless, it is important to understand that within 3-5 years it will be necessary to expand the boundaries and make the business “smarter” and more technologically advanced even for those who are not yet ready for this.
Finalizing, we can say that the Russian restaurant business demonstrates high adaptability and is ready for dynamic development in new realities. Success in it in the coming years will depend on the ability to balance between tradition and innovation.
By Anastasia Antsiferova, founder and managing owner of the restaurant group “This is a love match” (“Eto po lubvi”) (Yoshkar-Ola)