The topic of the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and its consequences is certainly very important and attracts all attention both within professional communities and far beyond. Behind this noise, it is easy not to notice or forget about other important trends that have no less, and often more, impact on the development of the industry. Some of these trends are certainly related to the technological development of mankind, and some to changes in social institutions and public consciousness.
One person with a computer can succeed more
In addition to the aforementioned AI, the development of computer hardware is very strongly influenced by the way creative industries work today. Tasks that used to require large investments in expensive equipment can increasingly be solved today using mid-range desktops. Structural changes in this sense occur in different areas at different rates. So, for example, a simple laptop with a couple of programs has long been enough to create and record music. Alas, to create complex special effects for movies and TV ads, you still need quite a few expensive computers. However, everything goes to the fact that these tasks will be solved much more often “at home.”
The segment of very complex and specialized equipment is transformed into services. A recording studio with an hourly lease is quite enough to record an album for the final. Large “render farms” with hourly rentals and a convenient online application are gradually replacing private intra-studio ones, since fewer and fewer tasks need really large computing power.
If we very conditionally divide the entire business into large, medium and small one, then just changes in the field of computer technology provoke the flow of specialists from large and medium to small businesses, as well as the expansion of small businesses at the expense of new specialists. For example, video advertising, 3D presentations, and computer visualizations have become more accessible services. A small business can order such works from a “freelancer with a computer” and get very high-quality material, in simple cases no different from what would be sold to him in a large expensive studio. Accordingly, employees of such studios, realizing this, separate themselves, creating their home microstudies, which in fact consist of one or several “freelancers with a computer.”
Big business, such as factories, TV channels, for quite a long time comes to the understanding that the work that they used to order advertising agencies with a large staff can now and should be ordered from such freelancers. And so far, out of habit, they go to large studios, sponsoring, in fact, the management apparatus that is no longer needed. This, of course, is not about the fact that any “freelancer with a computer” can replace an entire studio, but an experienced and talented single artist can already do it. And in fact, if the customer has a good understanding of what he needs, there is no point in ordering work from a large agency or studio, which themselves are likely to simply hire a freelancer.
The process of changing consciousness in this direction is going on, and it is unlikely to stop.
Geographic segmentation
For the same reason, geographical changes are taking place. Since, for example, the production of advertising and small presentations using 2D/3D animation no longer requires the organization of studios with expensive equipment, therefore, it can be moved to cities and countries where life and wages are much cheaper. Even though there are higher political and economic risks. Thinking about the long-term prospects of the location of artists has ceased to make sense. As the experience of recent years has shown, IT teams and creative teams consisting of hundreds of people, if necessary, can be relocated in just one day.
For example, well-pipelined work, such as drawing 2D art, retouching and cleaning the shooting material, simple 3D modeling, are almost completely displaced from developed countries (North America, Europe). Now this is mainly done in India and China. And where work is expensive, there is high concentration of very complex areas of creative production dependent on close interaction, such as cinema, AAA games and video production, closely related to the work and performances of various live celebrities. The market for TV advertising and other not very complex media continues to concentrate somewhere in the middle: in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Thus, it is no longer possible to plan your career or the development of your business without taking into account this stratification. In addition to the fact that some of the areas of activity in the near future may be fully or partially conquered by AI, you can simply find yourself in the wrong country – one where there is simply no necessary market.
Soft skills are no longer so important
While many HR specialists tell their bosses about how important it is when hiring to assess the level of social skills, emotional intelligence, empathy and a sense of community, in practice it is in distributed creative teams that this ceases to play at least any significant role.
Yes, for companies that still need a well-developed workforce, packed closely in one building, the issue of the friendliness of the emotional climate is still relevant. But when a small agency or even a very large studio hires a “freelancer with a computer,” they absolutely do not care how this person builds personal connections in teams, how he looks, how he speaks etc. It’s enough that he just does his job and gets paid for it.
If you imagine Euler conditional circles (pie charts of intersecting sets), it is quite obvious that talented people with developed communication skills are much less than just all talented people combined. Therefore, managers who have understood and adapted to this new reality no longer spend time and energy on long interviews and building long-term work ties with freelancers.
Today, it is much more profitable without unnecessary conversations to try to work with a person on a small test or real task, find out if he is able to perform it with the proper quality, and completely close eyes to the candidate’s social skills simply to choose the cheapest and most effective specialist.
Including for the same reason, depersonalization and dehumanization of creative work occurs. After all, if the performer of the task is chosen by the method of brute force (blind search), and most professions are already more a craft than sacred art, then there is no point in seeing any person behind the performer. And this leads to the fact that the significance of the formation of a personal brand and an attempt to develop a reputation in the hope of securing a working relationship and tying the client to himself is rather greatly weakened. Not yet fully, yes. Many customers still continue to overpay for the “brand,” and it is not very clear how long it will still work.
On the one hand, the dreams of many workers about equality of opportunity and a fair labor market, in which performers are chosen in terms of value for money, are gradually coming true. On the other hand, for the same employees, many opportunities are closed to raise the price and build stable working connections due to personal reputation, acquaintances, recommendations, etc. Is this what ambitious creative people really dreamed of? The question is open.
Tolerance and equality are the engine of diversity
It is very noticeable how the tolerance of public opinion to certain previously forbidden topics is changing on the example of stand-up performances. Stand-up, and especially the genre of “observation comedy,” shows (and, of course, stimulates) the process of liberating and expanding topics for discussion possible in the public sphere. What was not customary to discuss even with the closest people, now you can speak from the stage, use in self-ironic jokes and openly declare your areas of interest. So, quite quickly, increasingly frank themes and images in the creative industries are demarginalized.
While some of the big business is trying to stay within the bounds of decency, other, more liberated brands are winning competition for their consumers’ attention with defiant content. All kinds of styles and directions of previously stable genres are also very much crushed. Because there are no specific people who could indicate the only sure way to develop the industry. Each author is right in his own way and creates as he wants. Anyone can become a trendsetter, usually completely by accident, but, as a rule, not for long. But each new trend leaves behind a new creative genre, in which there will be a certain number of fans and artists serving them.
Reverse engineering of games, films and TV series
Before spending a lot of money and time developing a media product, it would be nice to know if it will be in demand. And we live just at an amazing time when the success of the product depends more on the user’s “click” on an advertising banner or icon in an online store than on the “deeply developed idea” that the authors laid there. Therefore, it is more efficient and predictable to create first an attractive advertising banner with a catchy name, then develop a marketing company for it, and then make a movie or a computer game for this marketing company.
So, many companies, before really doing something, create many “ghost” projects that are born, tested on the audience and die only in the form of advertising materials and fake dummy communities on social networks.
Consumer attention becomes the only truly important commodity in the context of media content production. No matter how well the music is written, the game is drawn or the series are shot. A potential consumer is overloaded with choice and drowns in countless content for every taste. Therefore, the task of the creative business comes down primarily to the task of winning competition for attention. Therefore, business often goes to direct deception, selling one thing in its advertising under the guise of completely different one. For example, most annoying and tempting ads for games with fun puzzles or unusual action mechanics do not actually exist, but lure users to good old farms, clickers and ultra-casual three-in-a-row puzzles, with a ruthless system of pulling money out of their players.
Also, first, viral “tiktoks” are filmed about some very useful product, which in fact is not yet available, and only if there is a positive reaction to it, the entrepreneur orders real production.
Career through trial and error
In general, the industry is moving towards the fact that it is not particularly important for it to understand what and how actually works. Keeping track of everything that is happening in the world, understanding what the audience needs and designing a top-down media product is difficult, expensive and risky. Brute force strategies in a row are gaining popularity in various areas and, apparently, (and especially paired with AI) will become the main ones in the near future. Hiring people by brute force, creating product concepts through dummy testing, building a business by trial and error. All this suggests a frightening idea that it will be possible to build long-term career plans at random only which means that someone will be lucky with the chosen profession and specialization in it, but someone will not.
By Timur Mullayanov, CG Supervisor