A total collapse of the global technological infrastructure could become a new ‘black swan’ for the world economy. If this materializes, the event would lead to the digital obsolescence of entire societies. This forecast was shared by Artem Genkin, Doctor of Economics, professor, and founder of the business magazine Invest Foresight, at Moscow Trading Week, an international conference for traders, investors, and other professional financial market participants.
“This could be either an unexpected collapse of the global digital infrastructure, or one already discussed in certain studies,” Artem Genkin clarified.
The expert notes that the probability of this risk materializing within the next five years is 30 to 40%, according to an estimate provided by artificial intelligence.
Underwater communication cables could be a vulnerable link – in some areas, they carry up to 80% of all global financial data traffic. These cables are quite exposed to threats.
“In my opinion, information technology risk management systems are still lagging behind at this qualitatively new level, especially those related to quantum computing,” Dr. Genkin noted.
He also points out that a localized version of this scenario was the fire at a government data center (NIRS) in South Korea in 2025. That incident disrupted government services in the country and led to the suspension of more than 600 digital services.