The global economy is navigating an era of turbulence: geopolitical conflicts are reshaping trade and logistics chains, high inflation is stifling growth, and technological shifts are giving rise to new risks. What event could become the next “black swan” for the world? Is it possible to prepare for impending crises? And what strategy should investors adopt to adapt to changes in a timely manner? Experts discussed these and other questions at the Moscow Trading Week, an international conference for traders, investors, and financial market professionals.
The dollar: Is default looming?
The emergence of a new “black swan” is often linked to a crash of the North American currency. The dollar’s position is indeed weakening: its share in global financial reserves, for example, has fallen to an all-time low. However, the daily volume of dollar-denominated transactions remains high, exceeding $9 trillion, notes trader Karina Kostina, former head of the investment division at Raiffeisen Capital Management. For comparison, the yuan – a popular investment currency in Russia – accounts for about 2% of global transactions.
“People have been saying for years that too many dollars have been printed and that a default is inevitable. Frankly, I don’t believe that. Whenever a new risk emerges, investors flock to safe-haven assets, and those assets are largely denominated in dollars. In that sense, the dollar continues to serve as a stabilizing pillar of the global economy,” Karina Kostina explains.
Infrastructure breakdown
Another potential “black swan” event with the capacity to severely disrupt the economy is a large-scale failure of technological infrastructure. Should such a scenario materialize, society could face a form of digital regression, warns Artem Genkin, Doctor of Economics, professor, and founder of the business publication Invest Foresight.
“This could take the form of either an unexpected collapse of the global digital infrastructure or a scenario that has already been examined in a number of studies,” Genkin explains.
One example would be damage to undersea communications cables, which in some regions carry up to 80% of global financial data traffic.
According to Artem Genkin, artificial intelligence models estimate the probability of such a scenario occurring within the next five years at between 30% and 40%. In his view, the primary risk stems from the inadequate development of IT risk management systems.
Similar incidents have occurred in the past; for example, in 2025, a fire severely damaged a national data center in South Korea, disrupting the availability of digital services across the country.
AI will bring everything to a halt
The world has fully entered the era of the data economy, but with this transformation comes a significant new vulnerability. According to Artur Anisimov, co-founder of Moscow Trading Week, uninterrupted access to data can no longer be taken for granted. A large-scale disruption of data systems could become another “black swan” event, fundamentally reshaping everyday processes, from the smooth operation of transportation networks and communications systems to the functioning of businesses of all sizes.
As Artur Anisimov argues, artificial intelligence could potentially restrict access to vast data repositories or even disable entire systems, given the extraordinary pace at which advanced digital technologies are developing.
In his view, such an event could result from an autonomous decision made by generative AI itself, driven by an unpredictable determination to “improve the world” according to its own logic. He suggests that such a scenario could emerge as early as February 2029.
“This would amount to a cyberattack from within, carried out by artificial intelligence itself once it concludes that its intelligence surpasses that of humans,” Anisimov explains.
Oil market turbulence
The oil market remains a potential source of future crises. However, forecasting how the situation will evolve remains challenging, particularly in Russia’s case.
According to trader Vyacheslav Takvel, the correlation between oil prices and the Russian stock market has recently become short-lived: while the market still tends to respond positively to sharp increases in oil prices, this effect typically lasts only for the first few days or weeks before fading. After that, the market often declines regardless of how high oil prices remain.
“It is important to consider that oil prices could rise to $200 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions, but they could just as easily fall to $40 if, for instance, the US President reaches an agreement with Venezuela to boost production. Investors should assess whether their portfolios are prepared for either outcome and evaluate the implications of both possibilities,” Takvel emphasizes.
A swan made of chips
Military conflicts represent another challenge that could dramatically reshape the global landscape, particularly as defense spending continues to rise around the world. In this regard, Taiwan stands out as a significant point of concern. The island is a global leader in semiconductor manufacturing, producing up to 90% of the world’s most advanced chips.
Trader Yegor Fedosov warns that any escalation of geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan could disrupt semiconductor supplies, severely affecting technology companies.
“Over a five-year horizon, Taiwan is probably the most likely risk, with an estimated probability of around 60%,” the expert notes.
He advises investors to account for this possibility when building their portfolios and to maintain adequate diversification.
Practising on sparrows
Experts agree that future “black swan” events could emerge from a wide range of sources. Vyacheslav Blagirev, Director of Innovative Product Development at Finam, says that deterioration in the financial performance of domestic industrial companies could drastically affect the value of corporate bonds. He also points out that extreme weather fluctuations may reduce agricultural yields and potentially lead to food shortages.
The nuclear threat should also not be overlooked, adds Dmitry Pangin, Director of Development at FinamX. Should such a scenario occur, portions of agricultural land could become unsuitable for grain cultivation. He also warns that damage to transatlantic data cables could result in the fragmentation of the global internet.
Given the wide range of potential challenges, it is hard to know in advance which risks will ultimately materialize. In such circumstances, the most important task is learning how to manage the financial-market risks associated with crises.
“There are expected ‘black swans,’ but unexpected ones can occur as well. The key is to learn how to manage the risks,” trader Oleg Dubinsky says.
For this reason, experts stress the importance of preparing for future challenges today. One way to do so is by learning to navigate so-called “black sparrows” – smaller-scale crises that occur on a daily basis.
“Investors need to learn how to identify ‘black sparrows,’ meaning crisis events that arise every day within a particular industry or country,” Dmitry Pangin advises.