By the end of 2025, the approval rate for retail loans in Russia had fallen to a historic low of 17-18%, according to data from the National Bureau of Credit Histories.
This figure indicates that banks are now rejecting over 80% of loan applications. The sharp downturn occurred in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to an average approval rate of approximately 22.6% during the same period a year earlier.
Car loans proved the most problematic category, with rejection rates reaching 84%. For general consumer loans, banks now approve fewer than one in four applications. The mortgage segment fared somewhat better: by late 2025, about 35% of applicants were successful, down from over 50% just last summer.
According to Igor Rastorguyev, lead analyst at AMarkets, this sharp contraction in retail lending is a painful but expected stage in the economy’s transition to a new equilibrium. Banks are acting rationally: over the past year and a half, the regulator has significantly tightened macroprudential requirements, particularly for auto loans and mortgages for individual home construction. Meanwhile, loan portfolios are already experiencing stress from loans issued during the overheated market of 2023–2024. In this environment, quality is more important than volume – banks would rather forgo potential revenue today than grapple with delinquencies tomorrow.
From a broader economic perspective, the expert warns that this lending cool-down will inevitably slow domestic demand. Consumers accustomed to using credit are now forced to either postpone purchases or re-evaluate their budgets. For industries reliant on consumer demand – such as automotive manufacturing and durable goods retail – this translates into a slowdown, which will in turn dampen inflation. However, there is a clear silver lining: household debt burdens are decreasing, freeing up future income. Fewer loans means less reckless risk-taking – a healthy correction following a period of credit euphoria.
“A recovery in lending activity is unlikely before the second half of 2026. The key rate will be reduced gradually, but the regulator is in no hurry – the Central Bank remains focused on inflation and financial stability. Meanwhile, banks will be keeping a close watch: delinquency rates need to stabilize, and macroeconomic uncertainty must decline. Only then can we talk about a true market recovery. Until that point, easy access to credit is off the table – borrower requirements will remain stringent,” Rastorguyev emphasized.