Last year, the increase in cash in circulation was five times higher than in 2024, the Bank of Russia estimated. The largest contribution to the dynamics was made by December – the volume of cash increased by ₽ 0.8 trillion. This is a record for this month in 11 years
In 2025, the growth of cash in circulation led to an outflow of liquidity from Russian banks in the amount of 1 trillion rubles, the Central Bank said in a review. According to the regulator’s estimates, the flow of funds into cash was “slightly higher than in previous years,” although the situation was heterogeneous during the year. In 2024, the amount of cash in circulation increased by 0.2 trillion rubles, according to the data of the Central Bank.
In the first half of last year, cash returned to banks under the influence of continuing attractive interest rates on deposits and deposits, but since June, the trend has changed. By December, the outflow exceeded the results of the first half of the year, according to the materials of the Central Bank.
The sharp increase in cash in 2025 cannot be reduced to one reason – it was the result of a combination of seasonal and economic factors, Denis Astafyev, entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, explains. The end of the year is traditionally accompanied by an increased demand for cash due to the payment of bonuses, active New Year’s Eve expenses and an increase in settlements in the service sector. An additional impact was exerted by the cycle of cutting the key rate that began in the second half of the year: banks revised the yield on deposits and savings products, and some clients chose to keep funds in cash temporarily, without fixing them at a lower interest rate.
“At the same time, the December increase of almost 0.8 trillion rubles is rather a one-time seasonal surge, and not a sign of a systemic outflow of funds from banks,” the expert emphasizes. – On the scale of the money supply, we are talking about the redistribution of liquidity between forms of storage, a significant part of which is traditionally returned to accounts after the holidays. In 2026, interest in cash may persist with a further decrease in rates, but one should not expect the December peaks to be fixed as a stable trend. For the banking system, such fluctuations are not critical, while at the macro level, an increase in the share of cash can reduce the transparency of monetary circulation and, when demand increases, exert additional inflationary pressure.”