In conditions of instability, it is no longer enough for a business to just respond to market changes. The competitive advantage is gained by those who are able to see the shifts in advance and integrate them into the strategy. Trendwatching helps with this. Companies that have learned to “hear” emerging trends are forming new markets rather than catching up with them.
How it works
Unlike classical marketing research, which captures current consumer behavior, trendwatching is focused on the future. Its task is to capture emerging patterns before they become mainstream.
Experts are not interested in the novelty itself, but in repeated signals in different industries. If a bank launches a biometric service, and the delivery service marks the carbon footprint on the packaging, this is an indicator of the direction of change — a request for personalization and environmental friendliness.
Trendwatching begins with monitoring. Analysts collect “weak signals” from a wide variety of sources — academic research, startup conferences, social networks, and communities. These may be new queries in search engines, local services, or changes in consumer behavior that are not yet visible to the mass market.
From the information collected, a certain picture emerges: if similar phenomena are observed simultaneously in different industries and countries, this indicates an emerging trend. Thus, the growth of clothing rental services, as well as the emergence of restaurants and “green” banking products (loans and investments for eco-friendly projects), the desire to minimize waste demonstrate the formation of a trend towards sustainability and a closed-loop economy.
The next step is to check for stability. With the help of data analytics and expert interviews, companies assess the potential of a trend: how wide its impact will be, how quickly it will reach the mass consumer, and whether it is worth investing in it now.
The key stage is to translate the trend into specific business solutions. Without this, trendwatching remains an analytical report. For companies, value appears when observations turn into actions: launching a new product line, adjusting brand positioning, testing new business models.
Economic benefits
The economic effect of trendwatching is measured in three key dimensions. First, risk reduction: companies do not waste resources on products that will quickly lose relevance, and thus reduce the share of inefficient investments in marketing and R&D.
Secondly, revenue growth: early entry into promising segments allows to take positions before the market becomes saturated and become a pioneer.
Thirdly, cost optimization: products and services are developed more precisely for future requests, reducing the cost of refinement and market launch.
Cases: who managed to see the future
So, T-bank, then still Tinkoff, was one of the first to start building an ecosystem based on the request “all services in one application”. This was a response to the Life-as-a-Service trend (“Life as a Service” is a concept where subscriptions can cover any aspect of everyday life — from housing and food to leisure, health and finance, simplifying routine and personalizing the human experience) and took the bank far beyond the financial sphere.
Following this, SberMarket made a bet on instant delivery by opening a network of darkstores. The company not only satisfied the demand, but also created a new market segment by setting standards for fast service.
Fashion and culture were not left out either. Ch4rm was the first to notice the resurgence of the Y2K aesthetic — a style from the late 1990s and early 2000s featuring vibrant colors, shiny fabrics, low-rise jeans, spaghetti strap tops, and tracksuits – and created collections that quickly became popular with a younger audience.
And in gastronomy, Black Star Burger was the first to see an increase in demand for premium fast food with local ingredients and quickly occupied this niche, setting standards for a new format of the restaurant offer.
In household industry, IKEA, long before the widespread adoption of voice assistants, began to develop the concept of “smart home” by releasing furniture with built-in wireless charging and a line of smart devices, thereby outstripping the mass interest in smart technologies for the home.
Environmental trends have also become a point of focus for brands. Lush Cosmetics has built a strategy based on emerging trends — the rejection of animal testing, zero-waste and transparency of supply chains. Today, this is not only a philosophy, but also a growth driver that ensures the loyalty of millennials and zoomers.
The cases confirm the economic value: businesses that integrate trend analytics into marketing and product strategy record double-digit conversion growth and lower customer acquisition costs. In fact, trendwatching is becoming an optimization tool: it reduces the risk of unsuccessful investments, accelerates the commercialization of new ideas, and allows to occupy promising niches ahead of competitors.
Russian specifics
Global trends reach Russia slowly, but this does not mean that trendwatching is less relevant here. The Russian market is unique in its internal drivers of change: import substitution policy encourages companies to look for alternative products and technologies, digitalization of public services is changing the usual processes of interaction between government and business, and the growth of local brands creates new opportunities and competition within the country.
Companies that systematically monitor market signals and consumer behavior gain the opportunity to adapt international ideas to the local context, anticipate demand and create innovative products.
Specific examples of Russian brands confirm the value of this approach.
Melon Fashion Group saw that the departure of Western brands was creating a new niche in the clothing market, and was the first to expand its own collections of brands Zarina, befree and Love Republic, taking vacant positions.
PIX Robotics is following the trend towards digitalization and automation of business processes, offering Russian companies solutions that simplify integration with government services such as Gosuslugi.
How to integrate trendwatching into business processes
Effective trendwatching only works when it becomes part of a management system, rather than a one-time initiative. Its results should have a direct impact on the company’s strategy, from product portfolio and marketing to investments and HR practices.
For this to work in practice, it is important to consolidate responsibility: create an internal function or team that monitors market signals and regularly provides analytics to management. From now on, this data should become not just reports, but the basis for adjusting product plans, investment decisions, and launching fast pilots.
In this model, trendwatching becomes an early warning and navigation system. The company begins to build products for tomorrow’s demand, reduces the cost of finalizing unsuccessful initiatives, and enters the market faster with relevant proposals. This is not just a saving of resources, but a sustainability factor: a business stops catching up with the market and begins to manage changes, maintaining a competitive advantage even in conditions of uncertainty.
By Natalia Orlova, Managing Partner of the independent group of communication agencies TDI