The Russian government has drawn up two scenarios for the coronavirus crisis development. The first one includes a quarantine that will last until the end of June. In the other scenario, Russians will remain in self-isolation until the end of September.
Both scenarios have been prepared by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, RBC reports. Officials have sent inquiries to the country’s largest banks, asking them to supply their clients’ data. The government needed this information to be able to analyze their financial situations.
The first scenario says Russia will have to tighten its coronavirus response policies. A number of big cities will be closed; all economic activity will be halted in the second quarter of 2020. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy will begin to recover. Oil prices will remain at $20 per barrel. The dollar, according to this scenario, will cost RUR 80.
The second scenario is even worse. Russia will have to close part of its territory, not individual cities. The economy will be idle until September. China will suffer new coronavirus outbreaks. Economic recovery in Europe and China will not begin until the end of the year. Oil will cost $10 per barrel. In this context, the dollar can even rise to RUR 90.