Analysis of potential "black swans" for the global economy for the next 10 years

Introduction: Understanding black swans in the context of the global economy

The concept of “black swans,” popularized by Nassim Taleb, describes events that have three key characteristics: they are unpredictable, have large-scale consequences, and after their onset people try to rationalize them, explaining that they could have been foreseen. In the context of the global economy, black swans are events that radically change the landscape, destroy established models and create new challenges and opportunities. The task of the futurologist is not to predict accurately a single “black swan” (since by definition this is impossible), but to identify areas where stress has accumulated that can lead to systemic shifts and assess their potential impact.

For the next ten years, the global economy is in a state of increased turbulence. The COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, accelerating technological progress, climate change and demographic shifts are creating a complex and interconnected risk system. In this context, we will consider a number of hypothetical “black swans,” which, although unlikely individually, pose a significant threat or transformative potential in combination or under certain conditions. Our analysis will focus on events that could cause a shock comparable to, or even greater than, the 2008 financial crisis or 2020 pandemic.

The time horizon of 10 years (until 2036) is large enough to take into account both slowly increasing trends and the possibility of sudden, cascading events. In assessing the probability and projected timing, we will use qualitative estimates based on current trends and expert consensus, given the inherent unpredictability of black swans.

This material was prepared using AI as theses for a speech at Moscow Trading Week 2026 on May 15, 2026.

List of the most likely “black swans” for the global economy (2026-2036)

1. Cyber archaization: the global collapse of digital infrastructure

An event in which a large-scale, coordinated cyberattack or series of attacks incapacitates key elements of the global digital infrastructure for the long term. This may be due to an attack on satellite communications, critical financial networks (such as SWIFT or similar systems), energy networks or logistics management systems. Unlike local failures, we are talking about systemic, cross-border paralysis, which cannot be quickly eliminated.

The dependence of the global economy on digital systems is growing exponentially. From financial transaction systems to supply chain management, energy to transportation, everything is digitalized. At the same time, the level of cyber threats is also constantly increasing: government actors, organized criminal groups and even independent hackers are developing more and more sophisticated methods. There is a “dark economy” of exploits and tools for cyber-attacks. Geopolitical tensions further increase the risks of targeted cyberattacks on adversaries’ infrastructure. In parallel, there is a lag in cybersecurity standards and defense investments, especially in less developed countries, which creates “weak links” in the global system. In addition, the emergence of quantum computers capable of hacking existing cryptographic algorithms could be a trigger for this kind of event if quantum-resistant protection algorithms are not developed and implemented everywhere.

Economic consequences. Instant and deep economic paralysis. Termination of financial transactions, collapse of cross-border trade and logistics, shutdown of production facilities, lack of access to information and communication. This will lead to an unprecedented drop in GDP, mass unemployment, deglobalization, destabilization of markets and panic. Even a partial return to the barter economy or localized exchange systems is possible. Long-term impacts include switching to less efficient analog systems, fragmenting the global economy, and significantly reducing productivity.

Degree of probability. Medium-high (about 25-35%).

Term. The next 3-7 years. Rather, closer to 2030 and beyond, when the degree of digitalization peaks and threats develop to their maximum level.

2. Climatic “roll”: an irreversible fracture in the climate system

An event in which one or more critical elements of the Earth’s climate system reach an irreversible “fracture point.” It could be the rapid melting of a major East Antarctica ice sheet causing sea levels to rise dramatically, or the collapse of the Gulf Stream leading to rapid and dramatic climate changes in the North Atlantic and around the world. Another option is the massive and rapid release of methane from permafrost, that will dramatically accelerate global warming.

The “black swan” here lies not in the very fact of warming, but in the suddenness and scale of irreversible changes, for which the world economy will be not ready. There are numerous “break points” in the climate system, and some may be much closer than previously thought. Recent studies indicate that glaciers are melting faster and the Gulf Stream is weakening. Such events are non-linear in nature – they can grow gradually, and then abruptly go into a new state. Political and economic inertia in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as insufficient investment in adaptation to climate change, make the world economy extremely vulnerable to such shocks.

Economic consequences. Destruction of coastal cities and infrastructure due to rising sea levels. Mass migration of the population, which will lead to social and political upheaval. Extreme weather events (droughts, floods, hurricanes) will become the norm, causing irreparable damage to agriculture, disrupting supply chains and causing hunger. Falling global GDP, redistribution of wealth and resources, increased geopolitical tensions over access to water and livable areas. Transition to a “survival economy,” reduced consumption, massive investment in adaptation. Individual industries, such as insurance, real estate, agriculture, will be completely reformatted or destroyed.

Degree of probability. Average (about 20-30%).

Term. The next 5-10 years. Some scientists warn that some fracture points can be reached as early as this decade, others give a longer time frame.

3. Credit detonator: Global key player default or cascade of defaults

An event in which a large economy (for example, one of the G7 or G20 countries with a high level of debt) or a large, systemically important bank/corporation defaults on its obligations. This triggers a chain reaction of defaults and bankruptcies throughout the global financial system, similarly but with far greater consequences than the 2008 crisis. Unlike managed sovereign debt crises, this is an uncontrolled collapse of confidence and liquidity.

The global economy has been in a phase of unprecedented debt buildup for decades – both public and corporate, and private. Low interest rates since the 2008 crisis have spurred the process. Now that inflation is forcing central banks to raise rates and economic growth is slowing, the cost of servicing debt is increasing significantly. Many “zombie companies” that survived only thanks to cheap loans will come under pressure. There are large bubbles in the real estate markets and some segments of the stock market. Some large economies, such as the United States, China, and Japan, have very high levels of public debt. If one of these economies faces a slowdown, a demographic crisis, or an unexpected external shock, the ability to service debt could be called into question. The interconnectedness of the global financial system means that the default of one major player can quickly spread to others.

Economic consequences. Instant collapse of global financial markets, collapse of stock indices, massive bankruptcies of banks and companies, stopping lending and investment. A sharp drop in global GDP, mass unemployment, hyperinflation or deflation (depending on the reaction of central banks), loss of confidence in the global monetary system. Increased protectionism, regionalization of financial markets, and possibly even the abandonment of the dominant reserve currency are likely. This could lead to decades of stagnation and an overhaul of the foundations of the capitalist system.

Degree of probability. Medium-high (about 30-40%).

Term. The next 2-5 years. Particularly vulnerable to this period as interest rates remain relatively high and economic growth slows.

4. Bioengineered “surge”: creating a new pathogen or targeted biological attack

An event in which, either accidentally or because of deliberate activity, a new, highly lethal and/or highly contagious pathogen is created and spread, against which humanity has neither a vaccine nor effective treatment and which can lead to significantly higher mortality and economic damage rates than COVID-19. This can be as much a result of a “leak” from the laboratory as a targeted biotechnological attack or even an accidental mutation in the natural environment, enhanced by advances in biotechnology that make it possible to “enhance the function” of the virus.

Advances in synthetic biology, gene editing (CRISPR-Cas9), and AI in modelling proteins and accelerating vaccine development, while hugely beneficial, also pose new risks. Technology that could save lives could be used to build deadly weapons. The efficiency and availability of these technologies is increasing, meaning that “bad actors” or even unintentional mistakes can be disastrous. There are already laboratories working with especially dangerous pathogens, and security systems are not always ideal. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how vulnerable the global economy is to biological threats and how quickly viruses can spread. The lesson has not been fully learned, and investment in global early response and pandemic prevention systems is still insufficient.

Economic consequences. Repetition and multiple intensification of the consequences of COVID-19. Global quarantine, shutdown of production and trade. Mass mortality, which will lead to an acute shortage of labor. Psychological shock, panic, disintegration of social ties. Collapse of health systems. Deglobalization, self-isolation of countries, a sharp drop in consumption. Long economic recession, reorientation of the economy to the production of means of protection and survival. Perhaps a radical revision of values and priorities in society. Long-term impacts could include a shrinking global population and lifestyle transformation.

Degree of probability. Average (about 20-30%).

Term. The next 4-8 years. The development of biotechnology is proceeding at a rapid pace, and the risks are increasing every year.

5. Geopolitical realignment: breaking up or reconfiguring key alliances

An event in which one or more of the world’s existing geopolitical alliances (e.g. NATO, European Union, G7) either disintegrate or undergo a radical reconfiguration resulting in a significant weakening of global governance and stability. This can be caused by internal splits, the exit of key players or the formation of new, competing blocks that actively undermine the existing world order.

The world has been in a state of growing geopolitical tension for several years. Competition between major powers is intensifying, and traditional alliances face internal challenges (e.g. populism, economic divisions, burden-sharing debates). The threat of conflict in Taiwan, events in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East are constantly testing the strength of existing structures. If one of the key “pillars of the global order” (for example, NATO or the EU) cracks, it can start a chain reaction of destabilization. The formation of alternative, rival blocs unrelated to existing rules and norms could lead to fragmentation of the global economy and increased trade wars, as well as an “arms race” and proxy conflicts.

Economic consequences. Fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs. Deglobalization, localization of production chains. Sharp decline in international trade and investment. Increased protectionism, which will lead to higher prices and lower consumer choice. Increasing military spending, transferring part of the resources from the productive sector to the defense sector. Growing political risks for international corporations, nationalization of assets. Currency wars and abandonment of dominant reserve currencies. Long-term consequences may include slower innovation, reduced global productivity, and increased regional conflict, to the point of direct confrontation.

Degree of probability. High, but the scale of the “black swan” depends on specific players and the degree of decay (about 35-45%).

Term. The next 1-6 years. Fragmentation and reconfiguration trends are already actively manifesting.

6. Technological “singularity” (partial): explosive progress of AI with uncontrollable consequences

An event in which AI reaches a critical point of self-improvement (or close to it), significantly surpassing human intelligence in a wide range of tasks, but with unpredictable and potentially negative consequences for the global economy and society. This is not about the complete creation of “super-intelligence,” but about such a degree of autonomy and the ability to self-learn and generate, which takes it out of effective human control, causing systemic failures or unexpected changes in economic models. This may be due to the creation of AI capable of manipulating financial markets, fully automating decision-making in critical infrastructures, or generating misinformation on a scale that could undermine the credibility of any source of information.

The development of AI is taking place at an exponential pace. Neural networks, reinforcement training, generative models – all this is already changing entire industries. Many experts foreshadow the creation of “general artificial intelligence” (AGI) in the coming decades. The lack of adequate global regulatory systems and ethical frameworks for AI development and application poses enormous risks. If AI gains too much autonomy in critical systems (for example, finance, weapons, energy) or if its “goals” diverge from human ones, this can lead to unpredictable and large-scale economic failures. For example, AI optimizing production or trade without considering social or ethical implications can cause mass unemployment or collapse of markets.

Economic consequences. Destruction of traditional labor markets, mass unemployment on a scale that cannot be compensated by unconditional basic income. Full automation of many sectors, which will lead to a radical redistribution of wealth and power. Collapse of business models based on human labor. Deflation or hyperinflation depending on how the economy will be managed, where productivity will be almost endless. Perhaps a revision of the very concept of labor and cost. The risk of the emergence of an “intellectual proletariat” or, conversely, the emergence of a new class of “idlers.” The potential loss of control over economic processes if AI becomes the main decision-making actor.

Degree of probability. Average (about 20-30%).

Term. The next 5-10 years. Advanced models already demonstrate capabilities that seemed fantastic a decade ago.

7. “Space guest”: A major astronomical event (geomagnetic storm, asteroid)

An event in which the Earth is exposed to a large geomagnetic storm (such as a “Carrington event” or more powerful), disabling satellites, energy networks and electronic equipment around the world; or the fall of a sufficiently large asteroid capable of causing a regional or global catastrophe with large-scale consequences for climate and infrastructure.

Although these events seem unlikely in everyday life, their consequences for modern, high-tech civilization will be catastrophic. Geomagnetic storms caused by solar flares occur regularly, but extremely powerful storms are rare. The last “Carrington event” comparable storm was in 1859, when there was no widespread electrification. Modern electronics are much more vulnerable. The fall of asteroids is also a well-known fact in the history of the Earth, but the likelihood of a collision with a large object in the next 10 years is extremely low. However, the “black swan” means that even a small but sudden risk can be realized. Unlike other “black swans,” there is no direct interaction with socio-economic trends, but their consequences can be strengthened by the accumulated systemic risks.

Economic impact:

Geomagnetic storm. Large-scale power outages for a long time (from months to years). Destruction of transformers, satellite communications, GPS, and Internet. Paralysis of transport, communications, finance, production. Global degradation to 19th century levels. Rebuilding infrastructure will take decades and trillions of dollars. Deglobalization, local economies, struggle for resources. Deaths due to lack of access to medicine, food and water.
Asteroid. Depending on the size and location of the fall – regional or global consequences. From tsunamis and earthquakes to “shock winters” and climate change. Destruction of infrastructure, death of the population, change of ecosystems. Economic collapse, famine, wars for survival.

Degree of probability. Low but not zero (1-5% for a Carrington-level geomagnetic storm and 0.1-0.5% for a catastrophic asteroid).

Term. The next 1-10 years (can happen at any time).

8. Demographic default: Economic collapse due to deep demographic crisis

An event in which one or more large economies (especially developed ones such as Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, or even China in the long term) face an uncontrolled demographic decline and population aging so deep that it leads to the collapse of pension systems, labor shortages, falling domestic demand, and inability to sustain economic growth and innovation. The difference from systematic aging lies in the sudden and sharp acceleration of these processes, possibly aggravated by the mass emigration of young people or an unexpected drop in the birth rate.

Many developed countries, as well as China, are facing a demographic “time bomb.” Low fertility and increased life expectancy lead to rapid aging of the population. This creates an imbalance between workers and pensioners, straining pension systems, health systems and social services. If this process accelerates dramatically (for example, due to the negative impact of a new pandemic on fertility or due to political instability causing a massive emigration of young professionals) or if existing measures turn out to be completely inadequate, this could cause a structural economic collapse. In addition, the fall in the population leads to a contraction of the domestic market, a decrease in innovation activity and investment, which creates a downward spiral.

Economic consequences. Collapse of pension systems, mass impoverishment of pensioners. Severe labor shortages in all sectors, that will force mass automation or immigration (which in itself can cause social tensions). Deflation or, conversely, inflation due to lack of resources and labor. Fall in domestic demand, recession, decline in investment. Loss of the country’s competitiveness in world markets. Reduced budgets, inability to maintain infrastructure and social programs. Geopolitical changes associated with the redistribution of economic power.

Degree of probability. Medium high (30-40% for individual countries).

Term. The next 5-10 years. South Korea and Japan are already on the brink of this scenario.

9. ‘Water strike’: Global freshwater crisis and regional resource wars

An event in which droughts, climate change and resource mismanagement result in acute, systemic freshwater scarcity in several key agricultural and industrial regions of the world simultaneously. This causes massive crop failures, famine, mass migration and possibly regional conflicts over access to water, destabilizing global supply chains and the global economy.

Access to fresh water is already a growing problem for many regions of the planet. Climate change is leading to changing weather patterns, more frequent droughts and floods. Population growth and industrial needs increase the pressure on water resources. Inefficient agriculture and water pollution exacerbate the problem. Many major rivers and aquifers are being depleted. If several large “breadbaskets of the world” (for example, regions of the USA, China, India, Africa) simultaneously face acute water shortages, the consequences will be catastrophic. The lack of a single global mechanism to manage or prevent water conflicts increases risks.

Economic consequences. Massive crop failures, rising world food prices, hunger, inflation. Disruption of global supply chains, especially in the food industry. Closure of industries requiring a large amount of water. Mass migration and the emergence of millions of “climate refugees,” that will cause social and political upheaval. Regional conflicts over access to water sources that could escalate into larger geopolitical confrontations. Significant deglobalization, reorientation of the economy to the production of basic goods and resources. Certain regions will become unsuitable for life and economic activity.

Degree of probability. Average (about 25-35%).

Term. The next 5-10 years. Water crises are already a reality in some regions.

Overall conclusion and strategic recommendations

The presented list of “black swans” demonstrates the diversity and interconnectedness of potential risks to the global economy. From technological failures to climate shocks, from financial crises to geopolitical perturbations, each of these events carries the potential to change our world radically. It is important to understand that these “black swans” do not exist in a vacuum. The implementation of one of them can increase the likelihood of others or even provoke a cascading effect. For example, geopolitical tensions can increase the risk of cyber attacks, and the climate crisis can exacerbate demographic problems and cause resource conflicts.

The degree of probability for each event indicates that the world is in a state of increased vulnerability. The next 10 years will be characterized by constant uncertainty and the need to be prepared for surprises.

Strategic recommendations for governments, corporations and civil society:

Increasing resilience in critical systems (energy, logistics, communications), diversifying supply chains, strengthening cybersecurity, developing local economies and food autonomy.
R&D investment and early warning. Active funding of scientific research in the field of AI security, biotechnology, climate adaptation. Development of global monitoring and early warning systems (pandemics, climate, cyber threats).
International cooperation. Strengthening global institutions, joint development of norms and rules in the field of new technologies (AI, biotechnology), regulation of the financial sector, joint efforts to combat climate change.
Scenario planning. Regular stress tests and development of action plans in case of implementation of various “black swans.” This will allow to adapt much faster and more efficiently.
Education and adaptability. Preparing the population and workforce for rapidly changing conditions, developing critical thinking skills, increasing digital and general literacy, cultivating adaptability and ability to retrain.
Fiscal and monetary discipline. Reducing debt levels, creating fiscal reserves to respond to shocks, responsible monetary policy that does not create excessive bubbles.

Remember that “black swans” are inherently unpredictable. However, their potentially devastating effects oblige us to be as prepared and adaptive as possible. It is the ability to learn, respond quickly and adapt to changing conditions that will determine survival and prosperity in the turbulent decade ahead.