As of February 2026, every eighth sq. m. of housing under construction by Russia’s five largest developers is behind schedule – a fourfold increase since the start of 2025. Among the major players, Samolet and Etalon Group are facing the most frequent delays, with nearly a quarter of their projects falling behind. While PIK and Tochno report delay rates below 10%, the sheer scale of their operations means the absolute volume of delayed square meters remains significant.
The share of delayed projects among the top five developers reached 12.7% by February 2026, accounting for over 1.95 mln sq. m., according to data from ERZ – Russian Property Developers Hub.
This marks a sharp escalation from February 2025, when the figure stood at just 3.2% (503,800 sq. m. out of 15.7 mln under construction). In essence, the volume of problematic construction among market leaders has nearly quadrupled in a single year.
However, according to Akhmed Yusupov, an economist and partner at the Goldman Agency communications firm, this trend reflects not so much a crisis among individual companies as a fundamental restructuring of the entire industry following the dismantling of state support and the end of an exceptionally favorable market.
“The market spent all of last year and the beginning of this year navigating tight monetary policy and the erosion of cheap mortgage options,” Yusupov explains. “Then, on January 1, 2026, the moratorium on fines expired, reinstating developers’ financial liability to equity holders. Add to that the broader challenges: rising material costs and a record labor shortage. Under these conditions, maintaining previous construction speeds became impossible. The industry has shifted from a race for volume to a survival game played out with a calculator.”
However, the 12.7% delay rate does not herald a “graveyard of unfinished projects;” it is a controlled, necessary recalibration. The project financing system remains robust, escrow accounts continue to protect buyers’ funds, and the government is maintaining an open dialogue with businesses, Yusupov notes.
He also points to a positive signal from regulators: the Central Bank’s February 13 decision to lower the key rate to 15.5%. “The industry interpreted this as a sign of impending stabilization,” Yusupov says. “We are witnessing a period of natural selection, where a culture of responsible planning is replacing a focus on gross output. The market is shedding its illusions, and that is precisely what will ensure its long-term stability.”