Russia’s GDP may grow 3.5–4% as of the end of this year as the current export market situation is favorable to accelerated growth, according to a forecast by economist and member of the general council of the Party of Growth Anton Lyubich, Regnum reports.
AMarkets Analytics Director Artem Deev predicts that the GDP growth rate will be around 3–3.5% thanks to the pricing situation on the global market this year.
“The pandemic has resulted in significant price hikes (in some cases by tens of percent) on commodities, metals, timber, agricultural products, mineral fertilizers and technology. Since all export growth data is calculated in US dollars, the exchange rate fluctuations may also factor in the final performance indicators of the export-oriented industries,” the expert explains. “Russia’s GDP (in rubles) will reflect the value of all goods and services produced in the country over the year — after all, the price hikes have affected all industries without exception (from hydrocarbons to food, grain, produce, etc.). Therefore, the growth will clearly be significant.”
Last year’s low basis will also contribute to the growth data. When the Russian economy was in recession due to COVID-19, its GDP went down 3.1%. Should the actual growth rate turn out to be 3—3.5% in 2021, it will mean the Russian economy has returned to the pre-crisis level of 2019, Artem Deev concluded.