The Russian stock market has not changed as of the end of 2018 showing one of the best dynamics among the developing economies. In 2019, RTS index (Russia Trading System) will grow by approximately 15%. Favorable commodity prices, weak ruble and moderate consumption will stimulate the cashflow growth. Russian exporters continue to benefit from the weak national currency.
In 2019, the growth of the Russian GDP will slow down to 1.5% while inflation is expected to be 5%. The increased tax burden resulting from the raised VAT (18% to 20%) will influence the economic growth and accelerate the inflation. The key rate will remain at 7.75%. The ruble will vary between 65 and 70 per US dollar.
The average Brent price in 2019 will stand at $70 pbl. Growing oil production in the United States and slowdown in the demand for oil in the world are the two main risks that will affect the oil price next year.