2018’s third quarter saw a drop in imports to Russia as compared to both last year and previous quarter. That came as a surprise to experts, Vedomosti newspaper notes.
According to the Bank of Russia, July/August/September imports amounted to $63 bln against $63.8 bln in the third quarter of 2017.
Imports usually grow in the second half of each year, yet that did not happen now. Oleg Solntsev of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting finds the situation abnormal. A similar situation was observed in 2014 when Russia’s economy was facing a crisis due to the oil price dive, and elevated geopolitical risks after the Crimea was annexed. Economists are also worried that imports decline may be caused by a lowering consumer demand which is a bad sign for the national economy.
“It is no surprise. The tightening belt policy always results in a declining demand, which is a norm”, Sergei Khestanov, assistant professor at Equity Markets and Financial Engineering chair, Department of Finance and Banking at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, notes. “Without the 2018 world football championship, the decline in the aggregate demand would have occurred earlier”.