In 2022, the Russian economy faced very serious challenges, and the number of sanctions against our country exceeded all reasonable limits and became historical in terms of their number. Head of the Financial Research Laboratory of the Institute of economic policy named after Yegor Gaidar Alexey Vedev told Invest-Foresight business magazine how to live today in conditions of financial and economic uncertainty.
– Alexey Leonidovich, is it really possible to call today’s time a period of financial and economic uncertainty?
– I think today’s time is really a period of financial and economic uncertainty. And it is a completely Artificial uncertainty, and in its depth quite voluntary events occur.
– What, for example?
– The last example: cards of our payment system “MIR”. First they are accepted by friendly countries, then they are not. And there are many such examples. This uncertainty is still made up of the unknown. What further sanctions we’ll face, what actions will be taken, how situation will change. Because even if something started working, it is not at all a fact that the positive component of this “work” will continue for a long time.
– In such conditions, does a winning strategy of financial economic behavior exist today?
– No, there is no such strategy. There is, probably, only one strategy. It is still ineffective enough and consists in laying all risks, all uncertainties in any strategy.
– If there is no exact strategy of behavior at this time, can you indicate namesake, what actions in the field of finance, in the field, so to speak, of “personal economy” are definitely recommended to avoid?
– Without a doubt, it is necessary to abandon the medium– and long-term planning or fulfil it very, very conditionally, for some kind of enlarged directions. This is the first. Second, you need to adhere to the thoughtful payment system that considers all possible risks. In addition, it is necessary to avoid market risks, these are fluctuations of currency rate, shares, bonds and securities’ value. All this, of course, must also be taken into account.
– That is, at the philistine level, it is not worth entering the stock market now in no case?
– Of course I would wait. We really saw until September 21 a certain stabilization after the shock and we see now what a collapse is going on stock market.
– How do you assume, what steps the authorities need to take to finish this unstable economic period? And in general – can these steps be taken or can we remain adrift?
– This is a rather difficult question. In principle, the government has developed a set of measures related to overcoming the consequences of the sanctions regime. This complex is being implemented today, somewhere successfully, somewhere not. And I don’t think anything better exists today than what is being realized currently.
– And we as a country will be able to get out of this situation on our own or will we have to look for strong allies?
– I think it’s real to get out. Moreover, the economy will continue to develop. The question is that you need to minimize every possible risk, this is the first. And secondly, unfortunately, world experience is insufficient to be used somehow in our case.
– That is, we, in fact, still have to improvise?
– Yes. And to make decisions in the course of the development of the situation.