The Bank of Russia has published its economic outlook for 2026 via its official Telegram channel.
According to the mega-regulator’s estimates, inflation is projected to decline to 4-5% by the end of next year before stabilizing around the target level of 4%. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Guidelines further state its commitment to steering inflation back to target in 2026.
The Bank of Russia attributes the anticipated improvement in inflation to a gradual easing of monetary conditions. As the balance between consumer demand and the economy’s productive capacity is restored, lending rates are expected to moderate, making financial planning more predictable for both households and businesses.
The bank’s baseline macroeconomic forecast anticipates a return to a more stable growth path, with GDP projected to expand by 0.5-1.5% in 2026. This outlook is underpinned by expectations of a balanced trend in lending – a scenario that avoids a significant increase in the overall debt burden while supporting continued investment activity in the real sector of the economy.