Russia may see the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic this fall because the resources to counteract the virus will be exhausted, says the Central Bank’s bulletin What’s Trending?
The regulator predicts that the economy will suffer the main blow in the first half of 2020. However, by the end of the year, the situation may deteriorate due to the beginning of a new season of common cold and other respiratory diseases. By that time, the financial resources of the state may be exhausted.
In fact, Russia has not seen a crisis yet, says Pavel Sigal, first vice president of OPORA RUSSIA.
“The WTO recently said that if the pandemic is contained in the nearest future, the word trade will be restored by the end of 2021. Russia depends a lot on the global trade: in particular, on energy deliveries to foreign market (here the situation is complicated due to falling oil and gas prices, due to which the budget will be short of 50% of income from these industries), as well as on deliveries of various raw materials from metals and timber to coal and ore (the Russian budget will also be affected if the demand is not restored by the yearend),” the expert said. “There also can be disruptions of foreign goods supplies.”
If we add the devaluation of the ruble, closing enterprises and shrinking industries, growing unemployment and reduced personal incomes, it becomes clear that it is only the beginning of the global recession that will affect the entire world, Sigal said.
It is most likely that the scale of the economic recession in Russia will be clear only by the end of the year. Only then will it be possible to make assessments regarding prospects for the restoration. Given that all countries are experiencing similar processes, we can assume that the economic restoration will take years, the expert concluded.