After the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to cut the key rate immediately by 3% (from 14% to 11%), the dollar and the euro on the Moscow Exchange switched to strengthening: the dollar rose in price to 60.7 rubles (+ 2.38 rubles), the euro amounted to 63.36 rubles (+ 2.73 rubles), the founder of Video Inside Alexander Mamichev explained to Invest-Foresight.
The regulator’s decision was expected: the Russian national currency has shown excessive strengthening in recent weeks, which reduces exporters and budget revenues. Therefore, a smooth decline in the ruble was expected, and a rate cut by the Central Bank contributes to this, the expert emphasizes.
“Most likely, the trend will continue, and the dollar will gradually grow over the month to the level of 64-65 rubles, and the euro – to 67-69 rubles. Further growth in the value of foreign currency on the Moscow Exchange will be stimulated by the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the rate of June 10 – the regulator has indicated that it is ready to lower the rate at least again,” Alexander Mamichev predicts.
In his opinion, for the Russian economy, a decrease in the key rate is definitely a positive moment, as this leads to a general reduction in the cost of lending in the country. Business also needs this since expensive development loans lead to an increase in costs and final cost of products. Low rates on loans are also needed to stimulate consumption. After all, mortgages with a high rate slow down the entire sector of construction and real estate, expensive car loans reduce the turnover of car manufacturers and related industries, etc. Tourism, the hotel sector, sales of expensive equipment, etc. depend on the availability of loans for citizens. Meanwhile, inflation in Russia now allows the Central Bank to soften monetary policy – price growth has slowed down significantly, deflation has been noted in the last week (inflation reduction from 17.7% to 17.5%).
“We can expect that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will continue to reduce the rate to stimulate consumption and economic growth in general,” the expert summarizes.