Sberindex data show a continued decline in private consumption (through late July), with only a slight rise in non-food purchases. Year-on-year growth in real consumer spending slowed to nearly zero in the week of July 21–27, down from 0.5% in June. This trend persists despite an 8.7% increase in real incomes during the first quarter of 2025 and unemployment hitting a record low of 2.2%, as reported by Kommersant.
The dynamics of real wages present a more mixed picture: after a sharp 6.5% annual jump in January, growth eased to 4.2% by May. Seasonally adjusted data from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF) highlight significant volatility – from a 2.2% drop in January to a 1.5% gain in April. Experts attribute the mismatch between rising incomes and stagnant wages to currency fluctuations, earnings from financial transactions, and potential statistical distortions.
Forecasts for 2025 wage growth have already been revised downward. While the Economics Ministry’s April projection anticipated a 6.8% increase, the consensus forecast by July was lowered to 3.4%. CMASF analysts argue that the potential for further substantial real wage growth has largely been exhausted, given the mounting pressure on businesses.