The total revenue of the largest developers in Russia decreased by almost 15% in the first nine months of 2025 to 1.27 trillion rubles, Vedomosti reports.
The drop in revenue of the largest developers in Russia by 14% in the first nine months of this year is a natural consequence of tight monetary policy, Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at Amarkets, said. From October 2024 to June 2025, the key rate was kept at 21%, which practically froze the market mortgage and forced developers to adapt. Now the rate has been reduced to 16.5%, but this is not yet the level that can launch mass demand, the expert emphasizes.
“At the same time, the situation is noticeably differentiated. The largest players like PIK showed revenue growth of 17%, while many regional and medium-sized developers faced a significant drop. This indicates the consolidation of the market – the strong are becoming stronger, the weak are forced to leave or look for partners, – Igor Rastorguev explains. “Family mortgages, which accounted for 68.5% of all home loans issued in August, remain the main pillar of the market, but the discussed reform of the program with differentiation of rates depending on the number of children can change the balance of power.”
The September data have already shown the first signs of recovery – the share of market mortgages began to grow, indicating the return of purchasing activity, the analyst continues. Developers are actively using installments and their own subsidy programs to support sales. This creates new risks for the industry, but at the same time demonstrates the flexibility of the Russian construction business. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, the key rate by the end of 2026 may drop to 12-13%, which will become a serious incentive for the recovery in demand.
“It is important to look at the situation in the context of broader economic processes: the labor market remains tense, real incomes of the population are growing. In such conditions, some correction in the real estate market is not a crisis, but a transition to a healthier development model after the “overheating” of previous years. Developers who manage to pass this period will reach a qualitatively new level of efficiency. And a window of opportunity opens up for buyers – now is the best time to negotiate prices and conditions,” Igor Rastorguev is sure.