The global economy growth rate will start decreasing as early as next year, with developing countries affected the most, including Russia, an updated forecast by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.
The OECD analysts have cut the forecast for the global GDP growth from 3.7% to 3.5%. They believe that the economy went through its local peak phase in 2018, with the forecast growth of 3.7%. Many countries are expected to see decreasing growth rates. Currently, extremely low unemployment levels are observed, but the ‘smooth slowdown’ scenario can be ruined by increasing risks.
In 2020, the situation can either aggravate or remain the same. The economic growth in the United States is expected at 2.1%, in eurozone at 1.6%, and in China at 6%.
“We are slowly proceeding to the next cyclic economic recession”, says Sergei Khestanov, economist and assistant professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation. “Just as it should be when going through a turning point, the second derivative – in this case, the growth rate – goes negative first, and only then it is followed by the first one, that is, the growth becomes a recession. It will happen soon, in a year or two, unless politicians make some surprise. The only unusual thing is that this is a rather expected crisis; normally, it occurs suddenly. But, on the other hand, the reason is not so important, while the causes are all there”.