An increase in the recycling fee, a change in the rules of parallel imports and a decrease in demand in the premium segment in 2025 changed significantly the economy of the auto business. It has become more expensive to work, and errors in calculations now directly affect the final cost of the car and the financial result of the companies. The market has moved to a new model, where the key factors are accurate cost calculation, financial discipline and transparency of the transaction for the client.
The market has shrunk, but not disappeared
According to the Avtostat agency, 1,326,016 new passenger cars were sold in Russia in 2025, which is 15.6% less than a year earlier. The premium segment decreased even more noticeably – by about 16.4%, to 130.4 thousand cars. For dealers operating in the upper price range, this meant a simultaneous decrease in volumes, an increase in financial burden and a reduction in margins.
However, the market has not disappeared – it has been redistributed. A significant share was taken by companies operating through parallel imports and not bearing the costs of maintaining large dealerships. This was a reflection of deeper structural changes rather than a temporary downturn.
The buyer began to count, rather than be impressed
After the departure of most foreign automakers from the Russian market, the official status of a dealer has lost its former significance. Most logistics and customs schemes of large dealers and independent importers of premium cars are now similar. Therefore, for the client, the difference between sellers has become less noticeable, since the final product is comparable in terms of characteristics and configuration.
Practical issues came to the fore: the origin of the car, the correctness of customs clearance, the completeness of documents and the final cost.
The presence of a large exhibition hall or a status dealership has ceased to be perceived as an independent value. Increasingly, the decision is based on calculations rather than an external impression.
Parallel import as standard, not exception
In 2025, according to various estimates, parallel imports accounted for about 10-12% of new car sales. This format made cars equally affordable for most market participants. As a result, the competition shifted: the decisive thing was not where the car was delivered from, but how accurately the logistics, calculations of currency risks, delivery times and paperwork were built.
The greatest risks arise in transactions with cars, which are paid before the actual import into the country. Errors in the calculation of customs payments, recycling fees or the impact of currency fluctuations can lead to additional charges and registration delays. Therefore, trust in the seller directly depends on his ability to calculate all expenses in advance and provide an understandable and predictable result.
Recycling fee and new financial model
Since January 1, 2026, companies’ spending on taxes and mandatory fees has increased sharply. Now the size of the recycling fee depends not only on the age of the car, but also on the engine power.
For example, for the Haval Jolion crossover with a 1.5 liter gasoline engine and a capacity of about 160 horsepower the recycling fee for legal entities before changing the calculation methodology was about 300,000 rubles. With the introduction of the new methodology in 2025, the rate increased to 667,400 rubles, and after the next indexation from January 1, 2026, it increased to about 800,800 rubles.
At the same time, the increase in fees is not one-time. Since 2024, there has been a mechanism for the annual indexation of the recycling fee until 2030, which makes a further increase in costs predictable and virtually inevitable. For market participants, this means that each subsequent transaction will be accompanied by additional costs, and companies are forced to build a financial model taking into account the constant increase in the cost of cars.
Under these conditions, the maintenance of large warehouses becomes economically inefficient. The high cost of financing and frozen working capital reduce the stability of the business. More companies are moving to bespoke operations, combining limited vehicle availability with supply flexibility.
New market phase
By 2026, it became obvious: the premium segment has undergone major changes in the structure of sales and management. The market is no longer growing due to large-scale infrastructure or demonstration of status – now accurate cost calculation, cost control and the ability to predict the result of the transaction are key issues.
Companies begin to build work around the client: some of the cars are offered from availability for quick sale, some are on order with accurate calculation of logistics, customs and recycling fees. This approach allows to combine the speed of the transaction with the flexibility of delivery and minimize financial risks.
According to industry forecasts, after 2027 the market will stabilize at about 1.2-1.4 million vehicles per year. One should not expect a sharp increase: the auto business is entering a phase of maturity, where profit is formed not on volume, but on the accuracy of calculations, turnover rate and the ability to predict all expenses in advance. Companies that know how to manage processes and build transparent relationships with customers get a sustainable advantage.
By Timur Kakanov, Managing Partner, Legacy Motors