Prices have stabilized in Russia for now – for now being the key word here, Fyodor Sidorov, private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment, explained to Invest Foresight. This happened because stores offered many seasonal groceries in summer; at the same time, retailers and distributors still had enough consumer goods in warehouses. However, parallel imports are gaining momentum and, due to logistics costs, prices will inevitably go up, the expert warns.
In addition, during the fall, people usually buy clothes and shoes for their children; parents shop for school supplies – stationery, uniforms, and backpacks; many also shop for clothes for the new season. That, too, can spur on inflation – the mere fact that people begin to spend more money.
However, low consumer demand continues to be a restraining factor to further price rises, Fyodor Sidorov emphasizes. According to various sources, Russians have not just switched to more thrifty consumption patterns; they have adopted a crisis-time behavior: they save rather than spend (the volume of savings is growing), shop around to get the best deals and choose discounters over traditional retail outlets.
“According to various forecasts (from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development to independent agencies), prices will resume growth in the fall and will grow across the board: from food to computers to household appliances, although for different reasons,”” the investor notes. “The share of imported food items will grow (the Russian season of cheap produce will end and producers’ costs are growing). As for consumer goods, warehouse balances will go down, as new supplies will come at higher prices, and higher volume of parallel imports will imply higher logistics costs.”