The Central Bank still plans to improve its forecast for GDP dynamics in Russia for 2022, in July its forecast assumed a decrease of 4-6%. That was reported by Interfax.
Nevertheless, not only the Central Bank of Russia, but also the Ministry of Economic Development, as well as foreign agencies predict the growth of GDP of the Russian Federation no earlier than 2024, and within 0.5-1.5% only. This is due to obvious reasons: in 2022 year the effect of sanctions, the growth of inflation, the reduction of imports and exports and, consequently, a decrease in budget revenues will all lead to a reduction in GDP, the private investor, founder of the “School of Practical Investment” Fedor Sidorov explains.
The same process will last into next year, as many effects of Western sanctions will manifest themselves more strongly over time. Not yet obvious deadlines for the completion of hostilities in Ukraine and mobilization measures, which will also put pressure on the revenues of the Russian state, expert said to Invest-Foresight.
“It is likely that in 2024 the situation will change: by this point many export flows can already be completely redirected to Asian countries (to replace exports to the EU and unfriendly countries), issues with parallel imports will probably be resolved, etc. Also incomes of the population will have the main value for the economy of the country – they must also grow, that will be an incentive to increase GDP,” the investor predicts. “But, most likely, this will happen on the horizon of 2024-2025, since it is objectively difficult to rebuild immediately the economy of such a large country, like Russia, at once.”