In February, the Central Bank will present an updated economic outlook for the potential decline of GDP in Russia in 2023. The regulator will need to assess new developments, such as the coming into force of the Western sanctions against Russia’s oil and gas sector, said Kirill Tremasov, director of the Central Bank Department for Monetary Policy, as quoted by Lenta.ru with a reference to the Bitkogan YouTube channel.
The Bank of Russia representative said that in October, the forecast was very volatile and anticipated a 1-4% drop in GDP in 2023 due to a high uncertainty about the sanctions at that time. It is still difficult to make predictions, but the Central Bank already does not see “the possibility of a positive economic growth rate” in the new year.
However, in the middle of the year, the situation in the economy might change, Kirill Tremasov hopes.
“International organizations forecast a 2% or more GDP decline,” says economist Dmitry Afanasyev. “In the second half of 2023, the situation might improve if it appears that the impact of sanctions is not as significant as expected. However, it will unlikely be possible to completely avoid the decrease of GDP.”