Russia and South Korea are the world’s only developing countries ready for a possible global recession. This is due to their budget systems’ safety margin allowing them to resort to both monetary and fiscal measures to stimulate the economy if necessary, Christopher Dembik, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Saxo Bank, said yesterday.
The expert also noted the high stability of Russia’s economy. Despite the ongoing trade war with the West, Russia keeps developing steadily. Dembik forecasts the country’s GDP growth at 1% this year and about the same figure for 2020.
According to Dembik, the relatively low growth rate is due to structural factors, obsolescence of assets, and low workforce productivity. In the past ten years, the structure of the Russian economy has not shown any changes, he said.
The expert believes that Russia, as well as the European Union, should be ready for an extended period of low GDP growth of about 1-2% per year. Yet, Russia has potential for growth acceleration in case efficient measures are taken to solve demographic and migration problems as well as labor productivity issues. Here, Russia could follow the example of Spain which has managed to effectively boost production efficiency, in particular, through robotization, the expert said.