Reducing oil production in Russia may lower the ruble exchange rate, Oleg Syrovatkin, Lead Analyst, Global Research, Otkritie Investments, says. The volume of “black gold” mined in the country should decrease by at least 20%, and exports should decrease by a third. This will make the national currency cheaper. The predicted rate under such a scenario is in the “corridor” from 77 to 85 rubles, “Prime” reports.
It is worth taking into account that events can go according to such a scenario if The Bank of Russia will leave the rate at the same level, private investor, founder of the “School of Practical Investment” Fedor Sidorov emphasizes.
“This indicator also affects the ruble. According to the latest forecasts, the average annual level of the key rate allows its reduction to the level of 6.5% by the end of this year. Lowering the rate level will reduce speculative demand for ruble, the value of the national currency will decrease predictably,” – the expert emphasizes.
Earlier it became known that the countries of the Group of Seven (G7) can install a ceiling on Russian oil price – i.e. the amount that will exceed the cost of production, but at the same time it will remain below the market. The measure is planned to be introduced along with embargo on the supply of oil from Russia to Europe.
“This will force Russia to reorient to other countries on the oil market and play to lower the price of oil,” – the expert explained to “Invest-Foresight. “Accordingly, the ruble will rise in price in relation to dollar. In general, the foreign exchange market is now more likely to continue to be affected by factors that serve to strengthen the Russian national currency.”