The exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar before the end of the year will be determined by one of the two possible economic scenarios.
However, in both cases the national currency will weaken in the third quarter of 2020, says Head of Investment at MKB Private Bank Valentin Zhurba (the forecast was provided by the Moscow Credit Bank press service).
According to the first, or basic, scenario, by the third quarter of 2020 the exchange rate of the dollar may reach RUR 80. It will happen if there is no coronavirus vaccine by the fall, and there is another market correction followed by a slow recovery.
In this scenario, the Bank of Russia will continue to lower the key interest rate. By the end of the year, the US dollar will equal RUR 72, the expert believes.
There is another possibility that the vaccine is developed as soon as in the third quarter and the markets recover and even reach new highs.
Then the Russian currency might reach RUR 76-78 per dollar but will get back to RUR 67-70 by yearend.