Since the beginning of the year, the volume of non-payments in Russia has increased by more than 25%. This conclusion, based on open data from the Bank of Russia, was reached by the Debt Consultant collection agency.
Banks have accumulated RUB 1.463 trillion ($19 billion) in overdue retail debt, excluding mortgages. According to PLUSworld, over the first 9 months of 2025, this amount increased by nearly RUB 295 billion ($3.8 billion), averaging RUB 32.8 billion ($422 million) per month.
Igor Rastorguyev, leading analyst at AMarkets, explains that these figures should be viewed in proportion to the total retail lending portfolio, which exceeds RUB 37 trillion.
In the consumer segment, the NPL 90+ ratio (the share of loans overdue for more than 90 days) stands at 10.5%, which is notably higher than last year’s 7.7%. However, it remains within a manageable range.
“The Russian banking system has already weathered much more severe tests,” the expert reminds us. “During the 2009 crisis, the delinquency rate rose from 1.8% to 7.2% in a short period, and in 2015, the share of non-performing loans reached 9.5%. Back then, this was due to currency shocks, a sharp drop in household incomes, and mass bank failures. The current situation is fundamentally different: the banking sector is demonstrating a profitability of 22–24%, capital is more than sufficient, and 97% of assets are held by profitable banks.”
The analyst explains that the increase in overdue debt is linked to the “seasoning” of loan portfolios from 2023–2024, a period when loans were actively issued amid high interest rates and sometimes less stringent lending standards. The regulator anticipated this and took preemptive measures: it introduced restrictions on lending to borrowers with high debt burdens and tightened reserve requirements. These measures are now taking effect — the retail portfolio has stabilized, banks have tightened their underwriting standards, and the key rate has begun to decline.
“There are no reasons to speak of a debt crisis at this point,” states Igor Rastorguyev with confidence. “Mortgages, which account for over half of the retail portfolio, show an overdue rate of just 0.7–0.9% — a historically low level. Yes, consumer lending is under pressure, but the portfolio is shrinking as planned, and banks are selling overdue debt to collection agencies, cleaning up their own balance sheets. The system is not just withstanding the pressure; it is absorbing it.”
However, risks undoubtedly exist. If wage growth slows or interest rates remain high for an extended period, the situation could deteriorate. But the current trajectory suggests a gradual easing of monetary policy, which will reduce the burden on borrowers. The main priority is to prevent a new credit boom accompanied by a relaxation of standards. The Russian banking system is now much more resilient than it was a decade ago and is capable of navigating the challenges of 2025 without systemic shocks, the expert concludes.