There is no reason to believe that the novel coronavirus will stop here; common sense suggests a second wave should be expected, Andrei Movchan, CEO of Movchan’s Group investment management company, told the RTVI TV channel.
“Each viral pandemic always brought a second, and then a third wave,” the economist says.
However, he does not believe the second wave of COVID-19 will provoke new economic difficulties; it will depend on whether the authorities resort to broad lockdowns or not.
Repeated lockdowns, however, will definitely affect the economy, making things much worse. This will also happen due to the accumulated effect, because many businesses that have been struggling through the first wave may not survive another shutdown. Monetary measures have been used up and might entail a major devaluation of the ruble, Andrei Movchan explains.
“If the governments of major countries resort to more lockdowns in the fall, we will see a problem that is 50% bigger, slashing GDP and people’s incomes,” he predicts.
On the other hand, he does not see any reason to expect another Great Depression.
“That was like a disease of the economy. Now the economy is not sick; it has been in prison. Confinement does have a major impact on health, but it is not anything like a disability. If the economy felt bad in prison, that was vitamin deficiency, but once released, it will quickly recover,” the economist says.
According to him, during the Hong Kong influenza epidemic in 1968, there were no shutdowns, and no economic problems, although human losses amounted to 4 mio.