RANEPA study: what will be the oil production in Russia in 2023?

The dynamics of the main indicators of the global energy market and forecasts of international economic and research organizations were analyzed by experts from the Institute of applied economic research of RANEPA Andrey Kaukin and Evgenia Miller.

Maxim Bogodvid / RIA Novosti

Following the results of the 33rd OPEC + meeting, it was decided to adjust the total  production volume by 2 million barrels per day. Russia decided on voluntary reducing oil production by an additional 500 thousand barrels per day. In this case, production in Russia will decrease to 9.7 million barrels per day.

According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency, oil production in Russia in 2023 will amount to 10.3 million barrels per day, the forecast includes the possibility of acquiring buyers of Russian oil outside the EU, as well as China’s economic recovery. OPEC assumed in its March forecast the value of oil production in Russia in 2023 at 10.13 million barrels per day.

In 2023, global oil prices will be influenced by:

  • Decisions taken by central banks to counter accelerating inflation. If key rates rise, the global economy will slow down, which could reduce energy demand.
  • Recovery in fuel demand from major Asian economies (primarily China) after overcoming the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Reduction in oil production in Russia, including due to sanctions, imposed on Russian imports of oilfield services and technologies, as well as embargo on oil supplies from our country.
  • Risks of oil supply shortage due to underinvestment of the oil industry.

Prospects for recovery of oil production in Russia depend on dynamics of oil prices, the size of the discount on the Russian Urals, as well as on successes in redirecting Russian oil and petroleum products to Asian market.

Oil refining volumes in Russia have been growing since the end of 2022, a trend survived until the end of March 2023. A reduction in refinery utilization may occur, when the amendments that reduce the size of the damper come into force, and  the corresponding preventive work begins on oil refiners.

In this regard, it seems appropriate to continue the launched modernization programs of the refinery. This will contribute in the long term to growth of production volumes of high-margin petroleum products.

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