The main risks for the ruble in 2022 are the global crisis and the possible sanctions, the same as last year. It is possible that sanctions will exert an even greater pressure on the national currency rate.
“Even a threat of tough economic sanctions leads to a significant geopolitical premium in the ruble exchange rate,” notes Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam Group.
At the same time, the expert points out that the Russian government as well as the financial regulator have both the opportunities and the tools to smooth out the possible market volatility.
On the other hand, Director of FBK Grant Thornton’s Strategic Analysis Department Igor Nikolaev does not see any risks of collapse for the Russian ruble so far. As the expert notes, the national currency will continue to be supported by rather high oil prices. However, according to his estimates, the ruble will show a weakening trend in the second half of 2022: the dollar may approach 80 rubles, and the euro, 90 rubles.
According to Finam forecasts, the ruble exchange corridor will remain quite wide, within 70–78 rubles against the dollar and 81–87 rubles against the euro this year.
The experts have shared their forecasts during the Finam conference, Russia: 2021 Results and New Challenges.