The PwC international agency predicts that the global economy will be growing more slowly this year compared with the 21st century’s average, RBC reports.
This process has been dubbed “slowbalization” – a term coined in 2015 to describe a slowdown in the global economy (as opposed to globalization).
The annual growth of the world economy will be 3.4% based on PPP (purchasing power parity), PwC experts say. The average figure for this century is 3.8%.
“A slowdown is not yet a recession, and recession is still not a crisis,” explained economist Sergei Khestanov, Associate Professor at RANEPA. “Nevertheless, the lower the global growth rate, the more insignificant events can trigger a recession. For Russia, the most important factor is global oil demand, which is currently on the rise. But as global economic growth slows down, the demand for oil will shrink as well.”
According to the expert, Russia is not going to see any significant changes unless oil falls far below $40 and stays there for 3-5 years or oil production drops by half.
“Speaking abstractly – even still harsher sanctions are possible (an embargo like that of Iran), but this scenario looks overly surreal,” Khestanov added. “The baseline scenario involves “stability” for the next 3-5 years at least. Deviations from the baseline scenario are possible, but unlikely.”